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作者：Drechsel-Grau, Moritz; Peichl, Andreas; Schmid, Kai D. D.; Schmieder, Johannes F. F.; Walz, Hannes; Wolter, Stefanie
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Erlangen Nuremberg
摘要：We provide a comprehensive analysis of income inequality and income dynamics for Germany over the last two decades. Combining personal income tax and social security data allows us-for the first time-to offer a complete picture of the distribution of annual earnings in Germany. We find that cross-sectional inequality rose until 2009 for men and women. After the Great Recession, inequality continued to rise at a slower rate for men and fell slightly for women due to compression at the lower tai...
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作者：Aristodemou, Eleni; Rosen, Adam M.
作者单位：University of Cyprus; Duke University
摘要：In this paper, we analyze a discrete choice model for partially ordered alternatives. The alternatives are differentiated along two dimensions: the first an unordered horizontal dimension, and the second an ordered vertical dimension. The model can be used in circumstances in which individuals choose among products of different brands, wherein each brand offers an ordered choice menu, for example, by offering products of varying quality. The unordered-ordered nature of the discrete choice prob...
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作者：Costa-Gomes, Miguel A.; Cueva, Carlos; Gerasimou, Georgios; Tejiscak, Matus
作者单位：University of St Andrews; Universitat d'Alacant
摘要：We report on two novel choice experiments with real goods where subjects in one treatment are forced to choose, as is the norm in economic experiments, while in the other they are not but can instead incur a small cost to defer choice. Using a variety of measures, we find that the active choices (i.e., those that exclude the deferral outside option) of subjects in the nonforced-choice treatment are generally more consistent. We also find that the combined deferral and active-choice behavior of...
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作者：Freyberger, Joachim; Larsen, Bradley J.
作者单位：University of Bonn; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This study provides new identification and estimation results for ascending (traditional English or online) auctions with unobserved auction-level heterogeneity and an unknown number of bidders. When the seller's reserve price and two order statistics of bids are observed, we derive conditions under which the distributions of buyer valuations, unobserved heterogeneity, and number of participants are point identified. We also derive conditions for point identification in cases where reserve pri...
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作者：Arellano, Manuel; Bonhomme, Stephane; De Vera, Micole; Hospido, Laura; Wei, Siqi
作者单位：University of Chicago; Banco de Espana; IZA Institute Labor Economics; IE University
摘要：In this paper, we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: More than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely relate...
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作者：Feldman, Paul; Rehbeck, John
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Using a revealed preference approach, we conduct an experiment where subjects make choices from linear convex budgets in the domain of risk. We find that many individuals prefer mixtures of lotteries in ways that systematically rule out expected utility behavior. We explore the extent to which an individual's preference to choose mixtures is related to a preference for randomization by comparing choices from a convex choice task to the decisions made in a repeated discrete choice task. We find...
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作者：Bonhomme, Stephane; Weidner, Martin
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Oxford; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared error is minimax in a neighborhood of the reference model, based on one-step adjustments. In addition, we provide confidence intervals that contain the true parameter under local misspecification. As a tool to interpret the degree of misspecification, we map i...
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作者：Bowlus, Audra; Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien; Liu, Huju; Lochner, Lance; Park, Youngmin
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); Columbia University; Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada
摘要：This paper studies the evolution of individual earnings inequality and dynamics in Canada from 1983 to 2016 using tax files and administrative records. Linking individual tax filers to their employers (and rich administrative records on firms) beginning in 2001, it also documents the relationship between the earnings dynamics of workers and the size and growth of their employers. It highlights three main patterns over this period: First, with a few exceptions (sharp increase in top 1% and decl...
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作者：Glas, Alexander; Hartmann, Matthias
作者单位：University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Milano-Bicocca; University of Milano-Bicocca
摘要：Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel stylized fact that this variance misalignment is related to the rounding behavior of survey participants. Rounding may reflect the fact...
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作者：Descamps, Ambroise; Ke, Changxia; Page, Lionel
作者单位：Queensland University of Technology (QUT); University of Technology Sydney
摘要：We investigate if, and why, an initial success can trigger a string of successes. Using random variations in success in a real-effort laboratory experiment, we cleanly identify the causal effect of an early success in a competition. We confirm that an early success indeed leads to increased chances of a later success. By alternatively eliminating strategic features of the competition, we turn on and off possible mechanisms driving the effect of an early success. Standard models of dynamic cont...
