How success breeds success

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Descamps, Ambroise; Ke, Changxia; Page, Lionel
• 署名单位: Queensland University of Technology (QUT); University of Technology Sydney
• 刊物名称: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1759-7323
• DOI: 10.3982/QE1679
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 355-385
• 关键词: Dynamic contest; momentum; real effort; feedback; confidence; experiment; C91; D74

摘要

We investigate if, and why, an initial success can trigger a string of successes. Using random variations in success in a real-effort laboratory experiment, we cleanly identify the causal effect of an early success in a competition. We confirm that an early success indeed leads to increased chances of a later success. By alternatively eliminating strategic features of the competition, we turn on and off possible mechanisms driving the effect of an early success. Standard models of dynamic contest predict a strategic effect due to asymmetric incentives between initial winners and losers. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that they can explain the positive effect of winning. Instead, we find that the effect of winning seems driven by an information revelation effect, whereby players update their beliefs about their relative strength after experiencing an initial success.