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作者：Aguiar, Victor H.; Boccardi, Maria Jose; Kashaev, Nail; Kim, Jeongbin
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); Amazon.com; State University System of Florida; Florida State University
摘要：The random utility model (RUM, McFadden and Richter (1990)) has been the standard tool to describe the behavior of a population of decision makers. RUM assumes that decision makers behave as if they maximize a rational preference over a choice set. This assumption may fail when consideration of all alternatives is costly. We provide a theoretical and statistical framework that unifies well-known models of random (limited) consideration and generalizes them to allow for preference heterogeneity...
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作者：Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien; Toda, Alexis Akira
作者单位：Columbia University; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We develop an analytical framework designed to solve and analyze heterogeneous-agent models that endogenously generate fat-tailed wealth distributions. We exploit the asymptotic linearity of policy functions and the analytical characterization of the Pareto exponent to augment the conventional solution algorithm with a theory of the tail. Our framework allows for a precise understanding of the very top of the wealth distribution (e.g., analytical expressions for top wealth shares, type distrib...
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作者：Li, Qi; Pantano, Juan
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Arizona
摘要：Over the last several years, highly accurate methods of sex selection before conception have been developed. Given that strong preferences for sex variety in offspring have been documented for the U.S., we ask what the demographic consequences of sex-selection technology could be. Lacking variation across space and time in access to this technology, we estimate a dynamic programming model of fertility decisions with microdata on fertility histories. We leverage the quasi-experimental variation...
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作者：Bugni, Federico A.; Li, Jia; Li, Qiyuan
作者单位：Northwestern University; Singapore Management University
摘要：We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time-series data. The test statistic measures the distance between the empirical distribution functions of observed data in two local subsamples on the two sides of the cutoff. Critical values are computed via a standard permutation algorithm. Under a high-level condition that...
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作者：Madsen, Jakob; Strulik, Holger
作者单位：University of Western Australia; University of Gottingen
摘要：A core mechanism of unified growth theory is that accelerating technological progress induces mass education and, through interaction with child quantity-quality substitution, a decline in fertility. Using unique new data for 21 OECD countries over the period 1750-2000, we test, for the first time, the validity of this core mechanism of unified growth theory. We measure a country's technological progress as patents per capita, R&D intensity, and investment in machinery, equipment, and intellec...
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作者：Backus, Peter; Cubel, Maria; Guid, Matej; Sanchez-Pages, Santiago; Manas, Enrique Lopez
作者单位：University of Manchester; University of Bath; University of Ljubljana; University of London; King's College London
摘要：This paper studies gender differences in performance in a male-dominated competitive environment chess tournaments. We find that the gender composition of chess games affects the behaviors of both men and women in ways that worsen the outcomes for women. Using a unique measure of within-game quality of play, we show that women make more mistakes when playing against men. Men, however, play equally well against male and female opponents. We also find that men persist longer before losing to wom...
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作者：Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Southern California; Yonsei University; University of Pennsylvania; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly use this distribution as prior to construct Bayes forecasts for the individual time series. In addition to density forecasts, we construct set forecasts that explicitly target the average coverage proba...
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作者：Paluszynski, Radoslaw; Stefanidis, Georgios
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; York University - Canada
摘要：Quantitative models of sovereign default predict that governments reduce borrowing during recessions to avoid debt crises. A prominent implication of this behavior is that the resulting interest rate spread volatility is counterfactually low. We propose that governments borrow into debt crises because of frictions in the adjustment of their expenditures. We develop a model of government good production, which uses public employment and intermediate consumption as inputs. The inputs have varyin...
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作者：Liu, Laura; Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Princeton University
摘要：We develop a generally applicable full-information inference method for heterogeneous agent models, combining aggregate time series data and repeated cross-sections of micro data. To handle unobserved aggregate state variables that affect cross-sectional distributions, we compute a numerically unbiased estimate of the model-implied likelihood function. Employing the likelihood estimate in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, we obtain fully efficient and valid Bayesian inference. Evaluation o...
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作者：Schlaak, Thore; Rieth, Malte; Podstawski, Maximilian
作者单位：Free University of Berlin; Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the structural shock of interest. We test alternative instruments and find that narrative and model...
