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作者：Brunner, AD
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper examines the historical effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The primary focus is on world real non-oil primary commodity prices, although the effects on G-7 consumer price inflation and GDP growth are also considered. This paper has several distinct advantages over previous studies. First, several econometric models are estimated using fairly broad measures of prices and economic activity. Second, the models include continu...
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作者：Balke, NS; Wohar, ME
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Nebraska System
摘要：Previous analyses have concluded that expectations of future excess stock returns rather than future real dividend growth or real interest rates are responsible for most of the volatility in stock prices. In this paper, we employ a state-space model to model the dynamics of the log price-dividend ratio along with long-term and short-term interest rates, real dividend growth, and inflation. The advantage of the state-space approach is that we can parsimoniously model the low-frequency movements...
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作者：Nelson, JP
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：This study evaluates the roles of ideology, constituency, and political party for roll-call voting in the U.S. Senate on a broad set of environmental issues. The study estimates a model of political support using voting scores from the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) for the period 1988-1998, including observations on 91 senators for 130 roll-call votes. The study decomposes the scale-adjusted scores into relative weights due to the general electorate, the senator's support constituency, p...
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作者：Harbaugh, WT; Levinson, A; Wilson, DM
作者单位：University of Oregon; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University
摘要：This paper uses an updated and revised panel data set on ambient air pollution in cities worldwide to examine the robustness of the evidence for the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between national income and pollution. We test the sensitivity of the pollution-income relationship to functional forms, to additional. covariates, and to changes in the nations, cities, and years sampled. We find that the results are highly sensitive to these changes, and conclude that there is littl...
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作者：McMillen, DP; McDonald, JF
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
摘要：The introduction of a new zoning ordinance to Chicago in 1923 offers a natural experiment that allows us to determine the effects of zoning on relative land-value growth rates. Policymakers claimed at the time that land-use zoning would raise aggregate land values by reducing negative externalities associated with mixed land use. After controlling for initial land use and the endogeneity of zoning decisions, we find that residential zoning led to higher land value growth rates than commercial ...
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作者：Blau, DM; Mocan, HN
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use data from a sample of child care centers to estimate the relationships between cost and child care quality, and between revenue and quality. We use a measure of child care quality, designed by developmental psychologists, that is positively associated with child development. Taking the estimated cost-quality and revenue-quality relationships as given, we estimate the objective functions of firms and compute the quality supply function. The results indicate that the supply of quality is ...
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作者：Knittel, CR
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：The use of incentive regulation and other alternative regulatory programs in U.S. electricity markets has grown during the past two decades. Within a stochastic frontier framework, I investigate the effect of individual programs on the technical efficiency of a large set of coal and natural gas generation units. I find that those programs tied directly to generator performance and those that modify traditional fuel cost pass-through programs, to provide a greater incentive to reduce fuel costs...
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作者：Orphanides, A; van Norden, S
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：We examine the reliability of alternative output detrending methods, with special attention to the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap. We show that ex post revisions of the estimated gap are of the same order of magnitude as the estimated gap itself and that these revisions are highly persistent. Although important, the revision of published data is not the primary source of revisions in measured output gaps; the bulk of the problem is due to the pervasive unreliability of end-o...
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作者：Hanson, GH; Robertson, R; Spilimbergo, A
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Macalester College; International Monetary Fund
摘要：In this paper, we examine the impact of enforcement of the U.S.-Mexico border on wages in U.S. and Mexican border regions. The U.S. Border Patrol polices U.S. boundaries, seeking to apprehend any undocumented entrants. It concentrates its efforts on the Mexican border. We examine labor markets in border areas of California, Texas, and Mexico. For each region, we have high-frequency data on wages and person-hours the U.S. Border Patrol spends policing the border. For a range of empirical specif...
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作者：Netz, JS; Taylor, BA
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Baylor University
摘要：We empirically test implications from location theory using the location of Los Angeles-area gasoline stations in physical space and in the space of product attributes. We consider the effect of demand patterns entry costs, and several proxies for competition on the tendency for a gasoline station to be physically located more or less closely to its competitors. Using an estimation procedure that controls for spatial autocorrelation and spatial autoregression, and controlling for market charac...
