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作者：Conway, Patrick
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：Quarterly evidence on participation in IMF programs for the period 1974-2003 is examined using the techniques of hazard analysis and error-correction estimation. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested. An increase in cumulative prior participation in IMF programs is found to cause a reduction on average in the length of a new spell of participation. The length of time between participation spells is reduced significantly with an increase in prior participation in IMF programs. Reserve adequa...
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作者：Donald, Stephen G.; Lang, Kevin
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We examine inference in panel data when the number of groups is small, as is typically the case for difference-in-differences estimation and when some variables are fixed within groups. In this case, standard asymptotics based on the number of groups going to infinity provide a poor approximation to the finite sample distribution. We show that in some cases the t-statistic is distributed as t and propose simple two-step estimators for these cases. We apply our analysis to two well-known papers...
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作者：Coile, Courtney; Gruber, Jonathan
作者单位：Wellesley College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：A critical question for Social Security policy is how program incentives affect retirement behavior. We use the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) to examine the impact of Social Security incentives on male retirement. We implement forward-looking models whereby individuals consider the incentives to work in all future years. We find that forward-looking incentive measures for Social Security are significant determinants of retirement. We also find that private pension incentives have roughly ...
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作者：Leith, Campbell; Malley, Jim
作者单位：University of Glasgow
摘要：In this paper we estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves (NKPC) for U.S. manufacturing industries defined at the SIC two digit level over the period 1959 to 1996. This enables us to measure the extent of nominal inertia across industrial sectors. A key innovation in this research is the use of intermediate-goods costs rather than labor costs as a measure of marginal costs. Intermediate-goods costs are a more significant element of costs for the firms populating our sample and are not subject to...
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作者：Bernard, Andrew B.; Jensen, J. Bradford
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Plant shutdowns shape industry productivity, the dynamics of employment, and industrial restructuring. Plant closures account for more than half of gross job destruction in U.S. manufacturing. This paper examines the effects of firm structure on U.S. manufacturing plant closures. Plants belonging to multiplant firms and those owned by U.S. multinationals are less likely to exit. However, the superior survival chances are due to the characteristics of the plants rather than the nature of the fi...
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作者：Haider, Steven J.; Stephens, Melvin, Jr.
作者单位：Michigan State University; Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Previous research finds a systematic decrease in consumption at retirement, a finding that is inconsistent with the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis if retirement is an expected event. In this paper, we use workers' subjective beliefs about their retirement dates as an instrument for retirement. After demonstrating that subjective retirement expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions, we still find a consumption decline at retirement for workers who retire when...
