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作者：Franck, Raphael
作者单位：Bar Ilan University
摘要：This study analyzes the circumstances that enabled France to become in the late nineteenth century the first stable parliamentary democracy with universal (male) suffrage in Europe. It establishes a causal relationship between short-term variations in local income and the electoral support for the coalition of republican parties that represented the newly established regime. The results suggest the republican coalition won the parliamentary elections because most French regions did not suffer ...
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作者：Calel, Raphael; Dechezlepretre, Antoine
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper investigates the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on technological change, exploiting installations level inclusion criteria to estimate the System's causal impact on firms' patenting. We find that the EU ETS has increased low-carbon innovation among regulated firms by as much as 10%, while not crowding out patenting for other technologies. We also find evidence that the EU ETS has not affected patenting beyond the set of regulated companies. These resu...
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作者：Pandya, Sonal S.; Venkatesan, Rajkumar
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：Do consumers boycott in response to international conflict? We show that during the 2003 U.S.-France dispute over the Iraq War, the market share of French-sounding, U.S. supermarket brands declined. The dispute was a negative shock to U.S. consumers' associations with France. French-sounding brands, which consumers perceive to be French imports but are not, allow us to isolate the dispute's effect on economic behavior, as these brands' only link to France is through consumers' associations. Ou...
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作者：Kasy, Maximilian
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We discuss the tension between what we can get (identification) and what we want (parameters of interest) in models of policy choice (treatment assignment). Our nonstandard empirical object of interest is the ranking of counterfactual policies. Partial identification of treatment effects maps into a partial welfare ranking of treatment assignment policies. We characterize the identified ranking and show how the identifiability of the ranking depends on identifying assumptions, the feasible pol...
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作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo; Cantoni, Davide
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper examines the impact of exposure to foreign media on the economic behavior of agents in a totalitarian regime. We study private consumption choices focusing on the former East Germany, where differential access to Western television was determined by geographic features. Using data collected after the transition to a market economy, we find no evidence of a significant impact of previous exposure to Western television on aggregate consumption levels. However, exposure to Western broa...
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作者：Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Groningen
摘要：We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant but not time-varying factor loadings, suggesting structural change toward more volatile sectors. For comparable series, the U.S. postwar business cycle was as volatile overall as under the Classica...
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作者：Pascali, Luigi
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of Warwick; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：Are differences in local banking development long lasting? Do they affect economic performance? I answer these questions by relying on a historical development that occurred in Italian cities during the Renaissance. A change in Catholic doctrine led to the development of modern banks in cities hosting Jewish communities. Using Jewish demography in 1500 as an instrument, I provide evidence of extraordinary persistence in the level of banking development across Italian cities and substantial eff...
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作者：Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, Andre; Scharth, Marcel
作者单位：Tinbergen Institute; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Aarhus University; CREATES; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We verify whether parameter-driven and observation-driven classes of dynamic models can outperform each other in predicting time-varying parameters. We consider existing and new dynamic models for counts and durations, but also for volatility, intensity, and dependence parameters. In an extended Monte Carlo study, we present evidence that observation-driven models based on the score of the predictive likelihood function have similar predictive accuracy compared to their correctly specified par...
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作者：Pope, Nolan G.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Increasing the efficiency of the school system is a primary focus of policymakers. I analyze how the time of day affects students' productivity and if efficiency gains can be obtained by rearranging the order of tasks they perform throughout the school day. Using a panel data set of nearly 2 million sixth- through eleventh-grade students in Los Angeles County, I perform within-teacher, class type, and student estimation of the time-of-day effect on students' learning as measured by GPA and sta...
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作者：Desai, Mihir A.; Foley, C. Fritz; Hines, James R., Jr.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper analyzes the extent to which tax differences affect the use of trade credit. U.S.-owned affiliates in low-tax countries use trade credit to lend, whereas those in high-tax countries use trade credit to borrow: 10% lower local tax rates are associated with net trade credit positions that are 1.4% higher as a fraction of sales. The use of trade credit to get capital out of low-tax, low-return environments is also illustrated by the temporary repatriation tax holiday in 2005, which was...
