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作者：Ouazad, Amine; Ranciere, Romain
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; University of Southern California
摘要：This paper explores the effects of changes in lending standards on racial segregation within metropolitan areas. Such changes affect neighborhood choices as well as aggregate prices and quantities in the housing market. Using the credit boom of 2000 to 2006 as a large-scale experiment, we put forward an IV strategy that predicts the relaxation of credit standards as the result of a credit supply shock predominantly affecting liquidity-constrained banks. The relaxed lending standards led to sig...
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作者：Bertrand, Marianne; Morse, Adair
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We document that nonrich households consume a larger share of their current income when exposed to higher top income and consumption levels. Permanent income, wealth effects, and upward local price pressures cannot provide the sole explanation for this finding. Instead, we show that the budget shares that nonrich households allocate to more visible goods and services rise with top income levels, consistent with status-maintaining explanations for our primary finding. Nonrich households might h...
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作者：Bhattarai, Saroj; Lee, Jae Won; Park, Woong Yong
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Virginia; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：Using an estimated DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions and allowing for equilibrium indeterminacy, we find that a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the pre-Volcker period. This gave rise to self-fulfilling beliefs and unconventional transmission mechanisms of policy shifts: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output, while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output. We show that had the...
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作者：Deming, David J.; Cohodes, Sarah; Jennings, Jennifer; Jencks, Christopher
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：We study the impact of accountability pressure in Texas public high schools in the 1990s on postsecondary attainment and earnings, using administrative data from the Texas Schools Project. Schools respond to the risk of being rated Low Performing by increasing student achievement on high-stakes exams. Years later, these students are more likely to have attended college and completed a four-year degree, and they have higher earnings at age 25. However, we find no overall impact of accountabilit...
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作者：Evans, William N.; Garthwaite, Craig; Moore, Timothy J.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; University of Melbourne
摘要：We propose the rise of crack cocaine markets as a key explanation for the end to the convergence in black-white educational outcomes in the United States that began in the mid-1980s. After constructing a measure to date the arrival of crack markets in cities and states, we show that the decline in educational outcomes for black males begins with the start of the crack epidemic. We also show that there are higher murder and incarceration rates after the arrival of crack cocaine and that these a...
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作者：Eo, Yunjong; Kim, Chang-Jin
作者单位：University of Sydney; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：In this paper, we relax the assumption of constant regime-specific mean growth rates in Hamilton's (1989) two-state Markov-switching model of the business cycle. We introduce a random walk hierarchy prior for each regime-specific mean growth rate and impose a cointegrating relationship between the mean growth rates in recessionary and expansionary periods. By applying the proposed model to postwar U.S. real GDP growth (1947:Q4-2011:Q3), we uncover the evolving nature of the regime-specific mea...
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作者：Garicano, Luis; Steinwender, Claudia
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We introduce a novel empirical strategy to measure the size of credit shocks. Theoretically, we show that credit shocks reduce the value of long-term relative to short-term investments. Empirically, we can therefore compare the reduction of long-term relative to short-term investments within firms, allowing for firm-times-year fixed effects. Using Spanish firm-level data, we estimate the credit crunch to be equivalent to an additional tax rate of around 11% on the longest-lived capital. To pin...
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作者：Mertens, Elmar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Firmly anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in monthly data on realized inflation, survey expectations, and the term structure of interest rates. In order to assess whether inflation expectations are anchored, a timevarying volatility of trend shocks is estimated as well. While there is some commonality in inflation- and survey-based estima...
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作者：Spolaore, Enrico; Wacziarg, Romain
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We find that more closely related populations are more prone to engage in international conflict with each other. We provide an economic interpretation based on two connected mechanisms. First, more closely related groups share more similar preferences over rival goods and are thus more likely to fight over them. Second, rulers have stronger incentives to conquer populations more similar to their own, to minimize postconflict heterogeneity in preferences over government types and policies. We ...
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作者：Anderson, Nathan B.; Dokko, Jane K.
摘要：We compare the twelve-month default probability among subprime borrowers differing only in the number of months before their first lump-sum property tax payment, after which time they may be exposed to reduced liquidity. We show that borrowers with an earlier property tax billwithin three months of originationhave 2% to 6% higher first-year default rates than borrowers facing their first property tax bill ten to twelve months after origination. Lump-sum property tax payments appear to produce ...
