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作者：Freedman, Matthew; Owens, Emily G.
作者单位：Drexel University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We exploit a sudden shock to demand for a subset of low-wage workers generated by the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) program in San Antonio, Texas, to identify the effects of localized economic development on crime. We use a difference-in-differences methodology that takes advantage of variation in BRAC's impact over time and across neighborhoods. We find that appropriative criminal behavior increases in neighborhoods where a fraction of residents experienced increases in earnings. T...
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作者：Pope, Nolan G.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Increasing the efficiency of the school system is a primary focus of policymakers. I analyze how the time of day affects students' productivity and if efficiency gains can be obtained by rearranging the order of tasks they perform throughout the school day. Using a panel data set of nearly 2 million sixth- through eleventh-grade students in Los Angeles County, I perform within-teacher, class type, and student estimation of the time-of-day effect on students' learning as measured by GPA and sta...
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作者：Shen, Shu; Zhang, Xiaohan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; California State University System; California State University Los Angeles
摘要：This paper proposes consistent testing methods for examining the effect of a policy treatment on the whole distribution of a response outcome within the setting of a regression discontinuity design. These methods are particularly useful when a policy is expected to produce treatment effects that are heterogeneous along some unobserved characteristics. The test statistics are Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type and are asymptotically distribution free when the data are i.i.d. The proposed tests are applied...
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作者：Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation series and on the comovement among sectors. The modeling framework is a dynamic factor model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility as i...
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作者：Armantier, Olivier; Nelson, Scott; Topa, Giorgio; van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Using a unique, randomized information experiment embedded in a survey, this paper investigates how consumers' inflation expectations respond to new information. We find that respondents, on average, update their expectations in response to (certain types of) information, and do so sensibly, in a manner consistent with Bayesian updating. As a result of information provision, the distribution of inflation expectations converges toward its center and cross-sectional disagreement declines. We doc...
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作者：Caselli, Francesco; Tesei, Andrea
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We show that windfalls have no effect on democracies, while they have heterogeneous political consequences in autocracies. In deeply entrenched autocracies, the effect of windfalls is virtually nil, while in moderately entrenched autocracies, windfalls significantly exacerbate the autocratic nature of the political system. To frame the empirical work, we present a simple model in which political...
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作者：Desai, Mihir A.; Foley, C. Fritz; Hines, James R., Jr.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper analyzes the extent to which tax differences affect the use of trade credit. U.S.-owned affiliates in low-tax countries use trade credit to lend, whereas those in high-tax countries use trade credit to borrow: 10% lower local tax rates are associated with net trade credit positions that are 1.4% higher as a fraction of sales. The use of trade credit to get capital out of low-tax, low-return environments is also illustrated by the temporary repatriation tax holiday in 2005, which was...
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作者：Goodman, Sarena
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Between 2000 and 2010, five U.S. states adopted mandates requiring high school juniors to take a college entrance exam. In the two earliest-adopting states, nearly half of all students were induced into testing, and 40% to 45% of them earned scores high enough to qualify for selective colleges. Selective enrollment rose by 20% following implementation of the mandates, reflecting substitution away from noncompetitive schools. I conclude that a large number of high-ability students appear to dra...
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作者：Groh, Matthew; Krishnan, Nandini; McKenzie, David; Vishwanath, Tara
作者单位：The World Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This study examines the impact of a randomized experiment in Jordan in which female community college graduates were assigned to receive a wage subsidy voucher. The wage voucher led to a 38 percentage point increase in employment in the short run, but the average effect is much smaller and no longer statistically significant after the voucher period has expired. The extra job experience gained as a result of the wage subsidy does not provide a stepping-stone to new jobs for these recent gradua...
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作者：Huang, Wei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Zhao, Yaohui
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Peking University
摘要：This paper examines an unintended response to the one-child policy in China: births of twins. Analysis of population census data shows that the one-child policy has accounted for more than one-third of the increase in the reported births of twins since the 1970s. Investigation using birth spacing with prior births and height difference within twins suggests that the increase in the birth of twins is partly due to parents reporting regularly spaced children as twins to avoid the policy violatio...
