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作者：Kasy, Maximilian
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We discuss the tension between what we can get (identification) and what we want (parameters of interest) in models of policy choice (treatment assignment). Our nonstandard empirical object of interest is the ranking of counterfactual policies. Partial identification of treatment effects maps into a partial welfare ranking of treatment assignment policies. We characterize the identified ranking and show how the identifiability of the ranking depends on identifying assumptions, the feasible pol...
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作者：Benjamin, Daniel J.; Choi, James J.; Fisher, Geoffrey
作者单位：University of Southern California; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; Cornell University
摘要：We find using laboratory experiments that primes that make religion salient cause subjects to identify more with their religion and affect their economic choices. The effect on choices varies by religion. For example, priming causes Protestants to increase contributions to public goods, whereas Catholics decrease contributions to public goods, expect others to contribute less to public goods, and become less risk averse. A simple model implies that priming effects reveal the sign of the margin...
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作者：Deshpande, Manasi
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I estimate the effect of removing children with disabilities from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) on parental earnings and household disability receipt. Using administrative data from the Social Security Administration (SSA), I implement regression discontinuity and differencein- differences designs based on changes in SSA's budget for child medical reviews. I find that parents fully offset the SSI loss with increased earnings, and the loss of the child's SSI payment reduces disability appl...
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作者：Gumpert, Anna; Hines, James R., Jr.; Schnitzer, Monika
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Multinational firms with operations in high-tax countries can benefit the most from reallocating taxable income to tax havens, though this is sufficiently difficult and costly that only 20.4% of German multinational firms have any tax haven affiliates. Among German manufacturing firms, a 1 percentage point higher foreign tax rate is associated with a 2.3% greater likelihood of owning a tax haven affiliate. This is consistent with tax avoidance incentives and contrasts with earlier evidence for...
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作者：Copeland, Adam; Shapiro, Adam Hale
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We examine how the confluence of competition and upstream innovation influences downstream firms' profit-maximizing strategies. We focus on personal computers and use two novel data sets to describe the dramatic fall in both price (27% at an annual rate) and sales of a computer over its product cycle. Further, we document that computers are typically sold for only four months before being replaced by a higher-quality product. To explain these facts, we develop and calibrate a vintage capital m...
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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Moradi, Alexander
作者单位：George Washington University; University of Sussex; University of Oxford; Stellenbosch University
摘要：We exploit the construction and eventual demise of the colonial railroads in Ghana, and most of the rest of Africa, to study the impact of transportation investments in poor countries. Using new data on railroads and cities spanning over one century, we find that railroads had large effects on the distribution of economic activity during the colonial period and these effects have persisted to date, although railroads collapsed and road networks expanded considerably after independence. Initial...
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作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo; Cantoni, Davide
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper examines the impact of exposure to foreign media on the economic behavior of agents in a totalitarian regime. We study private consumption choices focusing on the former East Germany, where differential access to Western television was determined by geographic features. Using data collected after the transition to a market economy, we find no evidence of a significant impact of previous exposure to Western television on aggregate consumption levels. However, exposure to Western broa...
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作者：Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Groningen
摘要：We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant but not time-varying factor loadings, suggesting structural change toward more volatile sectors. For comparable series, the U.S. postwar business cycle was as volatile overall as under the Classica...
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作者：Kahn, Shulamit; MacGarvie, Megan J.
作者单位：Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper asks whether being located outside the United States lowers research productivity in a data set of foreign-born, U.S.-educated scientists. Instrumenting location with visa status that requires return to home countries, we find a large negative relationship between non-U.S. location and research output for countries with low income per capita but none for countries with high income per capita. This suggests that a scientist exogenously located in a country at the top of the income di...
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作者：Pascali, Luigi
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of Warwick; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：Are differences in local banking development long lasting? Do they affect economic performance? I answer these questions by relying on a historical development that occurred in Italian cities during the Renaissance. A change in Catholic doctrine led to the development of modern banks in cities hosting Jewish communities. Using Jewish demography in 1500 as an instrument, I provide evidence of extraordinary persistence in the level of banking development across Italian cities and substantial eff...
