-
作者：Dobbie, Will; Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul; Yang, Crystal S.
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Harvard University
摘要：This paper estimates the effect of Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on financial health using a new data set linking bankruptcy filings to credit bureau records. Our empirical strategy uses the leniency of randomly assigned judges as an instrument for Chapter 13 protection. We find that Chapter 13 protection decreases an index measuring adverse financial events such as civil judgments and repossessions by 0.323 standard deviations and increases the probability of being a homeowner by 13.2 perc...
-
作者：Baker, Scott R.; Fradkin, Andrey
作者单位：Northwestern University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Job search is a key choice variable in theories of labor markets but is difficult to measure directly. We develop a job search activity index based on Google search data, the Google Job Search Index (GJSI). We validate the GJSI with both survey- and web-based measures of job search. Unlike those measures, the GJSI is high frequency, geographically precise, and available in real time. We demonstrate the GJSI's utility by using it to study the effects of unemployment insurance policy changes bet...
-
作者：Chung, Andrea Park; Gaynor, Martin; Richards-Shubik, Seth
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; University of Bristol; National Bureau of Economic Research; Lehigh University
摘要：We study the effect of public subsidies from the Hill-Burton program on hospital capacity, organization of the hospital industry, and utilization. We estimate that the program accounted for a net increase of over 70,000 beds nationwide and that these effects lasted well beyond twenty years. We also show that differences in the number of hospital beds per capita between high- and low-income counties, rural and urban counties, and the South and the rest of the country fell substantially. We conc...
-
作者：Addoum, Jawad M.
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：This study examines household portfolio choice through the retirement transition. I show that couples significantly decrease their stock allocations after retirement, whereas singles' allocations remain relatively unchanged. Reallocations are concentrated among couples in which the wife is more risk averse than her husband. Husbands' and wives' respective retirement events are followed by opposite-signed changes in stock allocations. These findings are consistent with a model of collective hou...
-
作者：Osterrieder, Daniela u; Schotman, Peter C.
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Maastricht University; Tilburg University
摘要：We develop an almost affine term-structure model with a closed-form solution for factor loadings in which the spot rate and the risk price are fractionally integrated processes with different integration orders. This model is used to explain two stylized facts. First, predictability of longterm excess bond returns requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the risk price. Second, the large volatility of long-term bond returns requires persistence in the spot rate. Decomposing long-term ...
-
作者：Stevenson, Megan
作者单位：George Mason University
摘要：I conduct a series of tests of peer influence in juvenile incarceration facilities motivated by three mechanisms: criminal skill transfer, the formation of new criminal networks, and the social contagion of crime-oriented noncognitive factors. Identifying peer influence off natural variation in small cohorts within the same facility, I find evidence consistent with social contagion: exposure to peers who come from unstable homes and have high levels of aggression leads to an increase in crime ...
-
作者：Amisano, Gianni; Geweke, John
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：We establish methods that improve the predictions of macroeconometric modelsdynamic factor models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, and vector autoregressionsusing a quarterly U.S. data set. We measure prediction quality with one-step-ahead probability densities assigned in real time. Two steps lead to substantial improvements: (a) the use of full Bayesian predictive distributions rather than conditioning on the posterior mode for parameters and (b) the use of an equally weighted...
-
作者：Park, Kyung H.
作者单位：Wellesley College
摘要：Numerous studies find that criminal court judges issue racially disparate sentences, but whether these patterns reflect tastes for discrimination remains unclear. An alternative explanation is statistical discrimination, which implies that judges rely on race to predict a felon's latent criminality in the absence of perfect information. This paper uses an empirical approach that distinguishes between taste-based and statistical discrimination. The intuition is that if the rank order of judicia...
-
作者：Gimenes, Nathalie
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：This paper suggests an identification and estimation approach based on quantile regression to recover the underlying distribution of bidders' private values in ascending auctions under the IPV paradigm. The quantile regression approach provides a flexible and convenient parameterization of the private values distribution, with an estimation methodology easy to implement and with several specification tests. The quantile framework provides a new focus on the quantile level of the private values...
-
作者：Johnson, Robert C.; Noguera, Guillermo
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Warwick
摘要：We combine data on trade, production, and input use to document changes in the value-added content of trade between 1970 and 2009. The ratio of value-added to gross exports fell by roughly 10 percentage points worldwide. The ratio declined 20 percentage points in manufacturing, but rose in nonmanufacturing sectors. Declines also differ across countries and trade partners: they are larger for fast-growing countries, for nearby trade partners, and among partners that adopt regional trade agreeme...
