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作者：Baird, Sarah; Bohren, J. Aislinn; McIntosh, Craig; Ozler, Berk
作者单位：George Washington University; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California San Diego; The World Bank
摘要：We formalize the optimal design of experiments when there is interference between units, that is, an individual's outcome depends on the outcomes of others in her group. We focus on randomized saturation designs, two-stage experiments that first randomize treatment saturation of a group, then individual treatment assignment. We map the potential outcomes framework with partial interference to a regression model with clustered errors, calculate standard errors of randomized saturation designs, ...
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作者：Rozo, Sandra V.
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies the effects of violent crime on market prices and size using plant-level panel data in Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I exploit reductions in violence driven by increases in security expenditures during alvaro Uribe's presidency; these resulted in greater violence reductions in municipalities that voted for him in the 2002 elections as he was looking for reelection. I find that firms that face higher violence also face lower output and input prices. Output prices fall...
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作者：Croushore, Dean; van Norden, Simon
作者单位：University of Richmond; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO's forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables can also account for a significant fraction of th...
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作者：Gibson, Matthew; Shrader, Jeffrey
作者单位：Columbia University; New York University; Williams College
摘要：We investigate how the largest use of timesleepaffects productivity. Time use data from the United States allow us to test a model in which sleep improves productivity. Consistent with theory, we find sleep is more complementary to home production than to leisure for nonemployed individuals. We then show that later sunset time reduces worker sleep and earnings. After ruling out alternative hypotheses, we implement an instrumental variables specification that provides causal estimates of the im...
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作者：Qu, Zhongjun
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：This paper builds on the composite likelihood concept of Lindsay (1988) to develop a framework for parameter identification, estimation, inference, and forecasting in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models allowing for stochastic singularity. The framework consists of four components. First, it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for parameter identification, where the identifying information is provided by the first- and second-order properties of nonsingular submodels...
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作者：Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; McMillen, Daniel P.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：Despite unprecedented vertical growth in large cities, the economics of skyscrapers remain understudied. We combine data on tall buildings with a panel of land prices covering 140 years to analyze the determinants of urban heights. We provide estimates of the land price elasticity of height, the height elasticity of construction cost, and the elasticity of substitution between land and capital for tall buildings. The land price elasticity of height increased substantially over time, and it is ...
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作者：Blattman, Christopher; Emeriau, Mathilde; Fiala, Nathan
作者单位：University of Chicago; Stanford University; Makerere University; Leibniz Association; RWI - Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：High-impact policies may not lead to support for the political party that introduces them. In 2008, Uganda's government encouraged groups of youth to submit proposals to start enterprises. Of 535 eligible groups, a random 265 received grants of nearly $400 per person. Prior work showed that after four years, the Youth Opportunities Program raised employment by 17% and earnings by 38%. Here we show that recipients were no more likely to support the ruling party in elections. Rather, recipients ...
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作者：Andersen, Steffen; Cox, James C.; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.; Rutstroem, E. Elisabet; Sadiraj, Vjollca
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; University of Cape Town; Durham University; Orebro University; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：We provide evidence that choices over small-stakes bets are consistent with assumptions of some payoff calibration paradoxes. We then exploit the existence of detailed information on individual wealth of our experimental subjects in Denmark and directly estimate risk attitudes and the degree of asset integration. We discover that behavior is consistent with partial, rather than full, asset integration. The implied risk attitudes from estimating these specifications indicate risk premiums and c...
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作者：Graetz, Georg; Michaels, Guy
作者单位：Uppsala University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We analyze for the first time the economic contributions of modern industrial robots, which are flexible, versatile, and autonomous machines. We use novel panel data on robot adoption within industries in seventeen countries from 1993 to 2007 and new instrumental variables that rely on robots' comparative advantage in specific tasks. Our findings suggest that increased robot use contributed approximately 0.36 percentage points to annual labor productivity growth, while at the same time raising...
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作者：Hamilton, James D.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Here's why. (a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (b) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (c) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice. (d) There is a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t...
