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作者：Bhalotra, Sonia; Clarke, Damian
作者单位：University of Essex; Universidad de Santiago de Chile
摘要：Twin births are often construed as a natural experiment in the social and natural sciences on the premise that the occurrence of twins is quasi-random. We present population-level evidence that challenges this premise. Using individual data for 17 million births in 72 countries, we demonstrate that indicators of mother's health, health-related behaviors, and the prenatal environment are systematically positively associated with twin birth. The associations are sizable, evident in richer and po...
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作者：Christian, Cornelius; Hensel, Lukas; Roth, Christopher
作者单位：Brock University; University of Oxford; University of Bonn
摘要：We examine how income shocks affect the suicide rate in Indonesia. We use a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the cash transfer's nationwide rollout, and corroborate the findings using a randomized experiment. Our estimates show that the cash transfers reduce the yearly suicide rate by 0.36 per 100,000 people, corresponding to an 18% decrease. Moreover, a different type of income shock, variability in agricultural productivity, also affects the suicide rate. The cash transfer prog...
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作者：Gibson, Matthew
作者单位：Williams College
摘要：Environmental regulations may cause firms to reoptimize over pollution inputs. By regulating air emissions in particular counties, the Clean Air Act (CAA) gives firms incentives to substitute toward polluting other media, like waterways, and toward pollution from plants in other counties. I test these hypotheses using the EPA Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Regulated plants increase their ratio of water-to-air emissions by 177% (102 log points) and their level of water emissions by 105% (72 log...
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作者：Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The downtrend in U.S. interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in the longer-run equilibrium real rate of interest. We examine this issue using dynamic term structure models that account for time-varying term and liquidity risk premiums and are estimated directly from prices of individual inflation-indexed bonds. Our finance-based approach avoids two potential pitfalls of previous macroeconomic analyses: structural breaks at the zero lower bound and misspecificatio...
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作者：Bernard, Andrew B.; Moxnes, Andreas; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene
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作者：Doyle, Joseph; Graves, John; Gruber, Jonathan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Vanderbilt University
摘要：Hospital quality measures are crucial to a key idea behind health care payment reforms: paying for quality instead of quantity. Nevertheless, such measures face major criticisms largely over the potential failure of risk adjustment to overcome endogeneity concerns when ranking hospitals. In this paper, we test whether patients treated at hospitals that score higher on commonly used quality measures have better health outcomes in terms of rehospitalization and mortality. To compare similar pati...
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作者：Kuehn, Joseph
摘要：I introduce an empirical auction model where in addition to the private value that each bidder receives upon winning the auction, losing bidders incur a negative externality that depends on the identity of the rival winner. I show how the externalities and private value distributions can be identified and estimated in such a model. I then apply the model to U.S. Forest Service timber auctions. I find that mill bidders impose significant externalities on one another of between 10% and 22% of th...
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作者：Dzemski, Andreas
作者单位：University of Gothenburg
摘要：I study a dyadic linking model in which agents form directed links that exhibit homophily and reciprocity. A fixed-effect approach accounts for unobserved sources of degree heterogeneity. I consider specification testing and inference with respect to the homophily and reciprocity parameters. The specification test compares observed transitivity to predicted transitivity. All test statistics account for the presence of an incidental parameter by using formulas based on an asymptotic approximati...
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作者：Madeira, Carlos; Madeira, Joao
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; University of York - UK
摘要：This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dis...
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作者：Altmann, Steffen; Falk, Armin; Heidhues, Paul; Jayaraman, Rajshri; Teirlinck, Marrit
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; University of Bonn; University of Bonn; European School of Management & Technology; University of Toronto; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：We study the effects of defaults on charitable giving in a large-scale field experiment on an online fundraising platform. We exogenously vary default options along two choice dimensions: the charitable donation decision and the co-donation decision regarding how much to contribute to supporting the platform. We document a strong effect of defaults on individual behavior but nevertheless find that aggregate donation levels are unaffected by defaults. In contrast, co-donations increase in the d...
