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作者：Parker, Paul A.; Holan, Scott H.; Janicki, Ryan
作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
摘要：Statistical estimates from survey samples have traditionally been obtained via design-based estimators. In many cases these estimators tend to work well for quantities, such as population totals or means, but can fall short as sample sizes become small. In today's information age, there is a strong demand for more granular estimates. To meet this demand, using a Bayesian pseudolikelihood, we propose a computationally efficient unit-level modeling approach for non-Gaussian data collected under ...
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作者：Richards, Jordan; Tawn, Jonathan A.; Brown, Simon
作者单位：Lancaster University; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre
摘要：Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different regions of aggregation and the other imposing highly restrictive assumptions. To overcome these issues, we propose a model for high-resolution precipitation data from which we can simulate realistic fields and explore the behaviour of spatial aggregates. Rec...
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作者：Wang, Zhengfan; Fix, Miranda J.; Hug, Lucia; Mishra, Anu; You, Danzhen; Blencowe, Hannah; Wakefield, Jon; Alkema, Leontine
作者单位：University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; UNICEF; University of London; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
摘要：Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We com-piled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for estimating stillbirth rates for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019. The model combines covariates with a temporal smoothing process so that estimates are data-driven in country-periods with high-quality data and deter-mined by covariates for country-periods with limit...
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作者：Zhao, Sen; Ali, Shojaie
作者单位：Alphabet Inc.; Google Incorporated; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：Identifying differences in networks has become a canonical problem in many biological applications. Existing methods try to accomplish this goal by either directly comparing the estimated structures of two networks or test-ing the null hypothesis that the covariance or inverse covariance matrices in two populations are identical. However, estimation approaches do not pro-vide measures of uncertainty, for example, p-values, whereas existing testing approaches could lead to misleading results, a...
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作者：Liu, Bingjie; Yue, Xubo; Byon, Eunshin; Al Kontar, Raed
作者单位：Zhejiang Laboratory; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：As the market share of wind energy has been rapidly growing, wake effect analysis is gaining substantial attention in the wind industry. Wake effects represent a wind shade cast by upstream turbines to the downwind direction, resulting in power deficits in downstream turbines. To quantify the aggregated influence of wake effects on the power generation of a wind farm, various simulation models have been developed, including Jensen's wake model. These models include parameters that need to be c...
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作者：Hu, Liangyuan; Zou, Jungang; Gu, Chenyang; Ji, Jiayi; Lopez, Michael; Kale, Minal
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Columbia University; Brown University; Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai; Skidmore College; Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
摘要：In the absence of a randomized experiment, a key assumption for drawing causal inference about treatment effects is the ignorable treatment assignment. Violations of the ignorability assumption may lead to biased treatment effect estimates. Sensitivity analysis helps gauge how causal conclusions will be altered in response to the potential magnitude of departure from the ignorability assumption. However, sensitivity analysis approaches for unmeasured confounding in the context of multiple trea...
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作者：Campbell, Harlan; de Valpine, Perry; Maxwell, Lauren; de Jong, Valentijn M. T.; Debray, Thomas P. A.; Jaenisch, Thomas; Gustafson, Paul
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; Utrecht University; Utrecht University Medical Center; Utrecht University; Utrecht University Medical Center; Colorado School of Public Health
摘要：A key challenge in estimating the infection fatality rate (IFR), along with its relation with various factors of interest, is determining the total number of cases. The total number of cases is not known not only because not everyone is tested but also, more importantly, because tested individuals are not representative of the population at large. We refer to the phenomenon whereby infected individuals are more likely to be tested than noninfected individuals as preferential testing. An open q...
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作者：De Stefano, Domenico; Pauli, Francesco; Torelli, Nicola
作者单位：University of Trieste; University of Trieste
摘要：It is widely known that preelectoral polls often suffer from nonsampling errors that pollsters try to compensate for in final estimates by means of diverse ad hoc adjustments, thus leading to well-known house effects. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate the role of house effects on the total variability of predictions. To illustrate the model, data from preelectoral polls in Italy in 2006, 2008 and 2013 are considered. Unlike alternative techniques or models, our proposal l...
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作者：Guan, Tianyu; Nguyen, Robert; Cao, Jiguo; Swartz, Tim
作者单位：Brock University; University of New South Wales Sydney; Simon Fraser University
摘要：This paper develops new methods for providing instantaneous in-game win probabilities for the National Rugby League. Besides the score differential, betting odds, and real-time features extracted from the match event data are also used as inputs to inform the in-game win probabilities. Rugby matches evolve continuously in time, and the circumstances change over the duration of the match. Therefore, the match data are considered as functional data, and the in-game win probability is a function ...
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作者：Ryu, So Young
作者单位：Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno
摘要：Mass spectrometry is a potential diagnostic tool for rapid bacterial detection. However, in order to use this technology in clinical settings, it is important to develop sound statistical algorithms that can accurately analyze polymicrobial mass spectrometry data. Here, we propose a likelihood-based bacterial identification algorithm for bimicrobial mass spectrometry data. Specifically, we introduce a two-component mixture model with partially known labels. This method can model peaks with unk...
