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作者：Wang, Emily T.; Chiang, Sharon; Haneef, Zulfi; Rao, Vikram R.; Moss, Robert; Vannucci, Marina
作者单位：Rice University; University of California System; University of California San Francisco; Baylor College of Medicine
摘要：A major issue in the clinical management of epilepsy is the unpredictabil-ity of seizures. Yet, traditional approaches to seizure forecasting and risk assessment in epilepsy rely heavily on raw seizure frequencies which are a stochastic measurement of seizure risk. We consider a Bayesian nonhomo-geneous hidden Markov model for unsupervised clustering of zero-inflated seizure count data. The proposed model allows for a probabilistic estimate of the sequence of seizure risk states at the individ...
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作者：Banerjee, Trambak; Liu, Peng; Mukherjee, Gourab; Dutta, Shantanu; Che, Hai
作者单位：University of Kansas; Santa Clara University; University of Southern California; University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Riverside
摘要：Massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) offer a unique blend of a personalized gaming experience and a platform for forging social connections. Managers of these digital products rely on predictions of key player responses, such as playing time and purchase propensity, to design timely interventions for promoting, engaging and monetizing their playing base. However, the longitudinal data associated with these MMORPGs not only exhibit a large set of potential predictors to cho...
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作者：Denti, Francesco; Azevedo, Ricardo; Lo, Chelsie; Wheeler, Damian G.; Gandhi, Sunil P.; Guindani, Michele; Shahbaba, Babak
作者单位：Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：In this paper we focus on identifying differentially activated brain regions using a light sheet fluorescence microscopy-a recently developed technique for whole-brain imaging. Most existing statistical methods solve this problem by partitioning the brain regions into two classes: significantly and nonsignificantly activated. However, for the brain imaging problem at the center of our study, such binary grouping may provide overly simplistic discoveries by filtering out weak but important sign...
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作者：Qiu, Yuqi; Messer, Karen
作者单位：East China Normal University; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We develop a novel doubly-robust (DR) imputation framework for longitudinal studies with monotone dropout, motivated by the informative dropout that is common in FDA-regulated trials for Alzheimer's disease. In this approach the missing data are first imputed using a doubly-robust augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator; then the imputed completed data are substituted into a full-data estimating equation, and the estimate is obtained using standard software. The imputed comple...
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作者：Huang, Yen-tsung; Yu, Jih-chang; Lin, Ui-hsiang
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：The identification of surrogate markers for gold standard outcomes in clinical trials enables future cost-effective trials that target the identified markers. Due to resource limitations, these surrogate markers may be collected only for cases and for a subset of the trial cohort, giving rise to what is termed the case-cohort design. Motivated by a COVID-19 vaccine trial, we propose methods of assessing the surrogate markers for a time-to-event outcome in a case-cohort design by using mediatio...
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作者：Chakravarti, Purvasha; Kuusela, Mikael; Lei, Jing; Wasserman, Larry
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：A central goal in experimental high energy physics is to detect new physics signals that are not explained by known physics. In this paper we aim to search for new signals that appear as deviations from known Standard Model physics in high-dimensional particle physics data. To do this, we determine whether there is any statistically significant difference between the distribution of Standard Model background samples and the distribution of the experimental observations which are a mixture of t...
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作者：Schmid, Matthias
作者单位：University of Bonn
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作者：Wee, Damien c. h.; Chen, Feng; Dunsmuir, William t. m.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：Maximum likelihood estimation of the famous GARCH(1, 1) model is generally straightforward, given the full observation series. However, when some observations are missing, the marginal likelihood of the observed data is intractable in most cases of interest, also intractable is the likelihood from temporally aggregated data. For both these problems, we propose to approximate the intractable likelihoods through sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). The SMC approximation is done in a smooth manner so th...
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作者：Klausch, Thomas; Akwiwu, Eddymurphy U.; van de Wiel, Mark A.; Coupe, Veerle M. H.; Berkhof, Johannes
作者单位：University of Amsterdam
摘要：Women infected by the human papillomavirus are at an increased risk to develop cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions (CIN). CIN are classified into three grades of increasing severity (CIN-1, CIN-2, and CIN-3) and can eventually develop into cervical cancer. The main purpose of screening is detecting CIN-2 and CIN-3 cases which are usually removed surgically. Screening data from the POBASCAM trial involving 1454 HPV-positive women are analyzed with two objectives, estimate: (a) the transi...
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作者：Boonstra, Harm Jan; Van Den Brakel, Jan
作者单位：Maastricht University
摘要：A small area estimation method is developed for repeatedly conducted multipurpose surveys. A multilevel time-series model is proposed that uses direct estimates for the most detailed domains observed at the highest frequency of the repeated survey. A consistent set of estimates at different aggregation levels is then derived by aggregation of the model-based predictions obtained for the most detailed domains observed at the highest frequency. The model borrows strength over time and space via ...
