The Annals of Applied Statistics

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• MARGINALLY CALIBRATED RESPONSE DISTRIBUTIONS FOR END-TO-END LEARNING IN AUTONOMOUS DRIVING BY CLARA HOFFMANNa AND NADJA KLEINb AI翻译
  作者：Hoffmann, Clara; Klein, Nadja
  作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin
  摘要：End-to-end learners for autonomous driving are deep neural networks that predict the instantaneous steering angle directly from images of the street ahead. These learners must provide reliable uncertainty estimates for their predictions in order to meet safety requirements and to initiate a switch to manual control in areas of high uncertainty. However, end-to-end learners typically only deliver point predictions, since distributional predictions are associated with large increases in training...
• ESTIMATING PROMOTION EFFECTS IN EMAIL MARKETING USING A LARGE-SCALE CROSS-CLASSIFIED BAYESIAN JOINT MODEL FOR NESTED IMBALANCED DATA AI翻译
  作者：Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Kar, Wreetabrata; Mukherjee, Gourab
  作者单位：Indian Institute of Management (IIM System); Indian Institute of Management Bangalore; Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of Southern California
  摘要：We consider a large-scale, cross-classified nested (CRON) joint model for modeling customer responses to opening, clicking, and purchasing from promotion emails. Our logistic regression-based joint model contains cross -ing of promotions and customer effects and allows estimation of the hetero-geneous effects of different promotion emails, after adjusting for customer preferences, attributes, and historical behaviors. Using data from an email marketing campaign of an apparel retailer, we exhib...
• ALPHA: AUDIT THAT LEARNS FROM PREVIOUSLY HAND-AUDITED BALLOTS AI翻译
  作者：Stark, Philip B.
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
  摘要：A risk-limiting election audit (RLA) offers a statistical guarantee: if the reported electoral outcome is incorrect, the audit has a known maximum chance (the risk limit) of not correcting it before it becomes final. BRAVO (Lindeman, Stark and Yates (In Proceedings of the 2011 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections (EVT/WOTE'11) (2012) USENIX)), based on Wald's sequential probability ratio test for the Bernoulli parameter, is the simplest and most widely tried ...
• A VARIATIONAL BAYESIAN APPROACH TO IDENTIFYING WHOLE-BRAIN DIRECTED NETWORKS WITH FMRI DATA AI翻译
  作者：Wang, Yaotian; Yan, Guofen; Wang, Xiaofeng; LI, Shuoran; Peng, Lingyi; Tudorascu, Dana L.; Zhang, Tingting
  作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Virginia; Cleveland Clinic Foundation; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
  摘要：The brain is a high-dimensional directed network system, as it consists of many regions as network nodes that exert influence on each other. The directed influence exerted by one region on another is referred to as directed connectivity. We aim to reveal whole-brain directed networks based on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data of many subjects. However, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to produce scientifically meaningful estimates of whole-...
• MODELING A NONLINEAR BIOPHYSICAL TREND FOLLOWED BY LONG-MEMORY EQUILIBRIUM WITH UNKNOWN CHANGE POINT AI翻译
  作者：Zhang, Wenyu; Griffin, Maryclare; Matteson, David S.
  作者单位：Cornell University; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst
  摘要：Measurements of many biological processes are characterized by an ini-tial trend period followed by an equilibrium period. Scientists may wish to quantify features of the two periods as well as the timing of the change point. Specifically, we are motivated by problems in the study of electrical cell -substrate impedance sensing (ECIS) data. ECIS is a popular new technology which measures cell behavior noninvasively. Previous studies using ECIS data have found that different cell types can be c...
• A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ADSORPTION-ISOTHERM PARAMETERS IN GRADIENT-ELUTION PREPARATIVE LIQUID CHROMATOGRAPHY AI翻译
  作者：Su, Jiaji; Yao, Zhigang; Li, Cheng; Zhang, Ye
  作者单位：National University of Singapore; Shenzhen MSU-BIT University
  摘要：Determining the adsorption isotherms is an issue of significant importance in preparative chromatography. A modern technique for estimating adsorption isotherms is to solve an inverse problem so that the simulated batch separation coincides with actual experimental results. However, due to the ill-posedness, the high nonlinearity, and the uncertainty quantification of the corresponding physical model, the existing deterministic inversion methods are usually inefficient in real-world applicatio...
• SEQUENTIALLY VALID TESTS FOR FORECAST CALIBRATION AI翻译
  作者：Arnold, Sebastian; Henzi, Alexander; Ziegel, Johanna f.
  作者单位：University of Bern
  摘要：Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools for forecast evaluation are static, in the sense that statistical tests for forecast calibration are only valid if the evaluation period is fixed in advance. Recently, e-values have been introduced as a new, dynamic method for assessing statistical significan...
• THE SCALABLE BIRTH-DEATH MCMC ALGORITHM FOR MIXED GRAPHICAL MODEL LEARNING WITH APPLICATION TO GENOMIC DATA INTEGRATION AI翻译
  作者：Wang, Nanwei; Massam, Helene; Gao, Xin; Briollais, Laurent
  作者单位：University of New Brunswick; York University - Canada; University of Toronto; University of Toronto
  摘要：Recent advances in biological research have seen the emergence of high throughput technologies with numerous applications that allow the study of biological mechanisms at an unprecedented depth and scale. A large amount of genomic data is now distributed through consortia like The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), where specific types of biological information on specific type of tissue or cell are available. In cancer research the challenge is now to perform integrative analyses of high-dimensional...
• MIXED-FREQUENCY EXTREME VALUE REGRESSION: ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ON EXTREME RAINFALL INTENSITY AI翻译
  作者：Dupuis, Debbie J.; Trapin, Luca
  作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University of Bologna
  摘要：Understanding and modeling the determinants of extreme hourly rainfall intensity is of utmost importance for the management of flash-flood risk. In-creasing evidence shows that mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are the principal driver of extreme rainfall intensity in the United States. We use ex-treme value statistics to investigate the relationship between MCS activity and extreme hourly rainfall intensity in Greater St. Louis, an area particularly vul-nerable to flash floods. Using a block...
• BAYESIAN COX REGRESSION FOR LARGE-SCALE INFERENCE WITH APPLICATIONS TO ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS AI翻译
  作者：Jung, Alexander Wolfgang; Gerstung, Moritz
  作者单位：European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL); European Bioinformatics Institute; Helmholtz Association; German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ)
  摘要：The Cox model is an indispensable tool for time-to-event analysis, particularly in biomedical research. However, medicine is undergoing a profound transformation, generating data at an unprecedented scale, which opens new frontiers to study and understand diseases. With the wealth of data collected, new challenges for statistical inference arise, as datasets are often high dimensional, exhibit an increasing number of measurements at irregularly spaced time points, and are simply too large to f...