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作者：Stonebraker, Jeffrey S.; Keefer, Donald L.
作者单位：University of Denver; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：This paper describes the evolution and application of a novel approach for forecasting drug demand in markets where supply limitations have significantly curtailed sales volumes and thus reduced the usefulness of conventional sales-based forecasting methods. This occurs frequently with biological ( biotech) drugs. We use methods from decision analysis to explicitly model the variability in epidemiological data together with the variability in treatment modalities to estimate latent therapeutic...
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作者：Cerisola, Santiago; Baillo, Alvaro; Fernandez-Lopez, Jose M.; Ramos, Andres; Gollmer, Ralf
作者单位：Comillas Pontifical University; Santander; University of Duisburg Essen
摘要：We propose a stochastic unit commitment model for a power generation company that takes part in an electricity spot market. The relevant feature of this model is its detailed representation of the spot market during a whole week, including seven day-ahead market sessions and the corresponding adjustment market sessions. The adjustment market sessions can be seen as an hour-ahead market mechanism. This representation takes into account the influence that the company's decisions exert on the mar...
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作者：Caldentey, Rene; Haugh, Martin B.
作者单位：New York University; Columbia University
摘要：We study the performance of a stylized supply chain where two firms, a retailer and a producer, compete in a Stackelberg game. The retailer purchases a single product from the producer and afterward sells it in the retail market at a stochastic clearance price. The retailer, however, is budget constrained and is therefore limited in the number of units that he may purchase from the producer. We also assume that the retailer's profit depends in part on the realized path or terminal value of som...
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作者：Armony, Mor; Shimkin, Nahum; Whitt, Ward
作者单位：New York University; Technion Israel Institute of Technology; Columbia University
摘要：This paper studies the performance impact of making delay announcements to arriving customers who must wait before starting service in a many-server queue with customer abandonment. The queue is assumed to be invisible to waiting customers, as in most customer contact centers, when contact is made by telephone, e-mail, or instant messaging. Customers who must wait are told upon arrival either the delay of the last customer to enter service or an appropriate average delay. Models for the custom...
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作者：Chao, Xiuli; Chen, Hong; Zheng, Shaohui
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Tsinghua University; University of British Columbia; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Motivated by the challenges faced by the telecom industry during the past decade, in this paper we study a dynamic capacity expansion problem for service firms. There is a random demand for the firm's capacity in each period: the demand in excess of the capacity is lost, and revenue is generated for the fulfilled demand. At the beginning of each period, the firm might increase its capacity through purchasing equipment for immediate delivery, which is constrained by a random supply limit, or it...
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作者：Rubino, Melanie; Ata, Baris
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：Motivated by make-to-order production systems, we consider a dynamic control problem for a multiclass, parallel-server queueing system. The production system serves multiple classes of customers who require rigid due-date lead times and may cancel their order subject to a cancellation penalty. To meet the due-date constraints, a system manager may outsource orders when the backlog of work is judged excessive, thereby incurring outsourcing costs. The system manager strives to minimize long-run ...
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作者：Song, Wheyming T.; Schmeiser, Bruce W.
作者单位：National Tsing Hua University; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：Motivated by the question of which point-estimator digits to report in a statistical experiment, we study the probabilistic behavior of the digits as a function of the true performance measure and the point estimator's standard error. We investigate the family of Leading-Digit Rules, which guarantees that every unreported digit has correctness probability below a given threshold. Choosing the threshold to be about 0.198 yields Yoneda's rule. The easy-to-implement rule that reports the point es...
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作者：Hong, L. Jeff
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Quantiles of a random performance serve as important alternatives to the usual expected value. They are used in the financial industry as measures of risk and in the service industry as measures of service quality. To manage the quantile of a performance, we need to know how changes in the input parameters affect the output quantiles, which are called quantile sensitivities. In this paper, we show that the quantile sensitivities can be written in the form of conditional expectations. Based on ...
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作者：Nagarajan, Mahesh; Sosic, Greys
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Southern California
摘要：In this paper, we study dynamic supplier alliances in a decentralized assembly system. We examine a supply chain in which n suppliers sell complementary components to a downstream assembler, who faces a price-sensitive deterministic demand. We analyze alliance/coalition formation between suppliers, using a two-stage approach. In Stage 1, suppliers form coalitions that each agree to sell a kit of components to the assembler. In Stage 2, coalitions make wholesale price decisions, whereas the ass...
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作者：Zhang, Jiawei
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We consider the one-warehouse multiple retailer inventory model with a submodular joint setup cost function. The objective of this model is to determine an inventory replenishment policy that minimizes the long-run average system cost over an infinite time horizon. Although the optimal policy for this problem is still unknown, a class of easy-to-implement power-of-two policies are 98% effective. This paper focuses on how the cost, under an optimal power-of-two policy, should be allocated to th...
