-
作者：Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction tournament. Forecasters were randomly assigned to either prediction markets (continuous double auction markets) in which theywere ranked based on earnings, or prediction polls in which they submitted probability judgments, independently or i...
-
作者：Berger, Loic; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo
作者单位：Fondazione Mattei; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Polytechnic University of Milan
摘要：We propose a robust risk management approach to deal with the problem of catastrophic climate change that incorporates both risk and model uncertainty. Using an analytical model of abatement, we show how aversion to model uncertainty influences the optimal level of mitigation. We disentangle the role of preferences from the structure of model uncertainty, which we define by means of a simple measure of disagreement across models. With data from an expert elicitation about climate change catast...
-
作者：Cho, Soo-Haeng; Wang, Xin
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：This paper studies a merger between price-setting newsvendors in an oligopolistic market. It is well known that inventory pooling can greatly reduce inventory costs in a centralized distribution system because it helps reduce aggregate demand uncertainty. Although such statistical economies of scale are important benefits of a retail merger, the extant literature models cost savings from a merger only through reduction in a postmerger firm's marginal cost. In this paper, we develop a model of ...
-
作者：Butler, Alexander W.; Cornaggia, Jess; Gurun, Umit G.
作者单位：Rice University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：This paper uses detailed data from an online peer-to-peer lending intermediary to test whether local access to finance affects consumers' willingness to pay for loans. After controlling for local economic conditions and borrower credit quality, we find that borrowers who reside in areas with good access to bank finance request loans with lower interest rates. This effect is stronger for borrowers with poor credit and those seeking small loans, suggesting that local access to finance is more im...
-
作者：Walters, Daniel J.; Fernbach, Philip M.; Fox, Craig R.; Sloman, Steven A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Brown University
摘要：We propose that an important determinant of judged confidence is the evaluation of evidence that is unknown or missing, and overconfidence is often driven by the neglect of unknowns. We contrast this account with prior research suggesting that overconfidence is due to biased processing of known evidence in favor of a focal hypothesis. In Study 1, we asked participants to list their thoughts as they answered two-alternative forced-choice trivia questions and judged the probability that their an...
-
作者：Wei, Zaiyan; Lin, Mingfeng
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of Arizona
摘要：Online peer-to-peer lending (P2P lending) has emerged as an appealing new channel of financing in recent years. A fundamental but largely unanswered question in this nascent industry is the choice of market mechanisms, i.e., how the supply and demand of funds are matched, and the terms (price) at which transactions will occur. Two of the most popular mechanisms are auctions (where the crowd determines the price of the transaction through an auction process) and posted prices (where the platfor...
-
作者：Moore, Don A.; Swift, Samuel A.; Minster, Angela; Mellers, Barbara; Ungar, Lyle; Tetlock, Philip; Yang, Heather H. J.; Tenney, Elizabeth R.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Pennsylvania; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah
摘要：This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecasters predicted the outcomes of hundreds of events. We sought to apply insights from research to str...
-
作者：Lobel, Ilan; Sadler, Evan; Varshney, Lav R.
作者单位：New York University; Harvard University; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：We study how to optimally attract new customers using a referral program. Whenever a consumer makes a purchase, the firm gives her a link to share with friends, and every purchase coming through that link generates a referral payment. The firm chooses the referral payment function and consumers play an equilibrium in response. The optimal payment function is nonlinear and not necessarily monotonic in the number of successful referrals. If we approximate the optimal policy using a linear paymen...
-
作者：Ryall, Michael D.; Sampson, Rachelle C.
作者单位：University of Toronto; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We develop a model in which the parties to a joint production project have a choice of specifying contractual performance in terms of actions or deliverables. Penalties for noncompliance are not specified; rather, they are left to the courts under the legal doctrine of compensatory damages. We analyze three scenarios of increasing uncertainty: full information, where implications of partner actions are known; risk, where implications can be probabilistically quantified; and ambiguity, where im...
-
作者：Schlereth, Christian; Skiera, Bernd
作者单位：WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Discrete choice experiments such as choice-based conjoint and dual response are popular preference elicitation methods, yet, they can suffer from context effects, extreme response behavior, and problems with estimating consumers' willingness to pay accurately when the purchase probability is high. This study proposes two new features to avoid these limits: (a) strictly separating all forced and all free choice questions and (b) an adaptive mechanism to select fewer, but more informative, free ...
