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作者：Berardi, Andrea; Markovich, Michael; Plazzi, Alberto; Tamoni, Andrea
作者单位：Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Rutgers University Newark
摘要：We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-2, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia that is otherwise missed by forward rates. Consistent with the argument that CG captures the effect of real imbalances on the path of r...
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作者：Ghili, Soheil; Klibanoff, Peter
作者单位：Yale University; Yale University; Northwestern University
摘要：Consider a canonical problem in choice under uncertainty: choosing from a convex feasible set consisting of all (Anscombe-Aumann) mixtures of two acts f and g, {alpha f + (1 - alpha)g : alpha is an element of [0, 1]}. We propose a preference condition, monotonicity in optimal mixtures, which says that surely improving the act f (in the sense of weak dominance) makes the optimal weight(s) on f weakly higher. We use a stylized model of a sales agent reacting to incentives to illustrate the tight...
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作者：Ham, Sung H.; Koch, Ingrid; Lim, Noah; Wu, Jiabin
作者单位：Michigan State University; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore; University of Oregon
摘要：This paper experimentally examines a conflict of interest (COI) situation in which a third-party reviewer provides a product assessment for a firm but also potentially benefits economically from the assessed firm's rival. We present a behavioral economics model to examine how reviewer competition and reciprocal relationships between firms and reviewers affect decision outcomes, followed by an experiment to investigate the model predictions. The experimental results are consistent with the beha...
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作者：Satopaa, Ville A.; Salikhov, Marat; Tetlock, Philip E.; Mellers, Barbara
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; Yale University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A four-year series of subjective probability forecasting tournaments sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed a host of replicable drivers of predictive accuracy, including experimental interventions such as training in probabilistic reasoning, anti-groupthink teaming, and tracking of talent. Drawing on these data, we propose a Bayesian BIN model (Bias, Information, Noise) for disentangling the underlying processes that enable forecasters and forecasting methods to improve-either ...
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作者：Agrawal, Vishal; Atasu, Atalay; Ulku, Sezer
作者单位：Georgetown University; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology; INSEAD Business School
摘要：We investigate the economic and environmental implications of jointly implementing leasing and modularity, two prominent circular economy strategies, and their interaction. We develop a durable goods model to obtain insights for firms considering the use of these strategies. We first analyze the effect of adopting leasing on a firm's product architecture choice. We find that a modular product architecture is more attractive under leasing only if off-lease products depreciate to a greater exten...
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作者：Drakopoulos, K.; Randhawa, R. S.
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：Information products provide agents with additional information that can be used to update actions. In many situations, access to such products can be quite limited. For instance, in epidemics, there tends to be a limited supply of medical testing kits, or tests. These tests are information products because their output of a positive or a negative answer informs individuals and authorities on the underlying state and the appropriate course of action. In this paper, using an analytical model, w...
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作者：Jain, Sanjay; Qian, Kun
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：The digital content industry is rapidly growing, and many platforms host a vast amount of content that is produced by independent producers. A major source of revenue for these platforms is advertising. However, advertising revenue depends on the number of active customers who visit the platform and enjoy content created by content producers. Therefore, major platforms provide incentives for content producers to encourage high-quality content creation. A commonly used incentive is ad revenue s...
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作者：Rahmani, Morvarid; Ramachandran, Karthik
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：In many contexts such as product design and development, advertising, and scouting for technical solutions, clients seek the expertise of external providers to generate innovative solutions for their business problems. Because innovation projects are beset with uncertainty, they often require multiple iterations of ideation and evaluation. Although some clients make a commitment to take the first feasible solution from the provider, other clients retain the flexibility to seek more solutions u...
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作者：Kawaguchi, Kohei; Uetake, Kosuke; Watanabe, Yasutora
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Yale University; University of Tokyo
摘要：We study how to design product recommendations when consumers' attention and utility are influenced by time pressure-a prominent example of the context effect-and menu characteristics, such as the number of recommended products in the assortment. Using unique data on consumer purchases from vending machines on train platforms in Tokyo, we develop and estimate a structural consideration set model in which time pressure and recommendations can influence attention and utility. We find that time p...
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作者：Beshears, John; Lee, Hae Nim; Milkman, Katherine L.; Mislavsky, Robert; Wisdom, Jessica
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Pennsylvania; Johns Hopkins University; Alphabet Inc.; Google Incorporated
摘要：Habits involve regular, cue-triggered routines. In a field experiment, we tested whether incentivizing exercise routines-paying participants each time they visit the gym within a planned, daily two-hour window-leads to more persistent exercise than offering flexible incentives-paying participants each day they visit the gym, regardless of timing. Routine incentives generated fewer gym visits than flexible incentives, both during our intervention and after incentives were removed. Even among su...
