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作者：Abdellaoui, Mohammed; Bleichrodt, Han; Gutierrez, Cedric
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universitat d'Alacant; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：Overconfident behavior, the excessive willingness to bet on one's performance, may be driven by optimistic beliefs and/or ambiguity attitudes. Separating these factors is key for understanding and correcting overconfident behavior, as they call for different corrective actions. We present a method to do so, which we implement in two incentivized experiments. The first experiment shows the importance of ambiguity attitudes for overconfident behavior. Optimistic ambiguity attitudes (ambiguity se...
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作者：Kuang, Xu; Wagera, Stefan
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：We use the lens of weak signal asymptotics to study a class of sequentially randomized experiments, including those that arise in solving multiarmed bandit problems. In an experiment with n time steps, we let the mean reward gaps between actions scale to the order 1= ffififfi root n to preserve the difficulty of the learning task as n grows. In this regime, we show that the sample paths of a class of sequentially randomized experiments-adapted to this scaling regime and with arm selection prob...
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作者：Shaffer, Matthew
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：In U.S. mergers and acquisitions, target directors are required to consider thirdparty financial valuations, summarized in a fairness opinion before accepting a takeover offer. Critics argue (1) that these valuations are not relevant for public companies, which can assess the desirability of the deal based on the market premium, and (2) that the investment bank providers cater to management by rationalizing the deal price rather than providing an independent valuation check. I find that fairne...
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作者：Adida, Elodie; Dai, Tinglong
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Riverside; Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：Diagnostic errors are common and can result in serious patient harm. Making the right diagnosis often requires significant diagnostic effort. Yet most physician payment schemes are procedure based and do not account for diagnostic effort or accuracy because of observability issues. In this paper, we develop a parsimonious model to examine the impact of a physician payment scheme on a physician's decisions to (1) exert diagnostic effort and (2) perform a confirmatory test. High effort provides ...
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作者：Figueroa, Nicolas; Lemus, Jorge
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：An applicant privately observes the value of an idea and files a patent application. After the examination, the patent examiner may not find conclusive evidence of the idea's value. In this case, granting a patent can be the right decision or a mistake. Moreover, it can prompt obfuscation-effort to disrupt communication-by the applicant, reducing allocative efficiency. We show there is more obfuscation when examiners are more lenient, and we provide an empirical exercise supporting this conclu...
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作者：Bertsimas, Dimitris; Pauphilet, Jean
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of London; London Business School
摘要：An ideal that supports quality and delivery of care is to have hospital operations that are coordinated and optimized across all services in real time. As a step toward this goal, we propose a multistage adaptive robust optimization approach combined with machine learning techniques. Informed by data and predictions, our framework unifies the bed assignment process across the entire hospital and accounts for present and future inpatient flows, discharges, and bed requests from the emergency de...
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作者：Cai, Xiangshang; De Cesari, Amedeo; Gao, Ning; Peng, Ni
作者单位：University of Liverpool; University of Manchester; Alliance Manchester Business School; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：Acquisition announcements coincide with upward value revisions for the target firms' technology peers, which are not due to economic relations based on product market, supply chain, or geographical location. Such a phenomenon is robust across subsample periods, not specific to merger or technology waves, and not related to product-market structure and the unique innovation features of certain technology-intensive industries. Firms experience more dramatic value revisions when they have deeper ...
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作者：Chen, Zhanhui; Lu, Yang; Zhang, Jinggong; Zhu, Wenjun
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Concordia University - Canada; Nanyang Technological University
摘要：Weather risk affects the economy, agricultural production in particular. Index insurance is a promising tool to hedge against weather risk, but current piecewise-linear index insurance contracts face large basis risk and low demand. We propose embedding a neural network-based optimization scheme into an expected utility maximization problem to design the index insurance contract. Neural networks capture a highly nonlinear relationship between the high-dimensional weather variables and producti...
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作者：Kasberger, Bernhard; Schlag, Karl H.
作者单位：Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; University of Vienna
摘要：We propose how to bid in first-price auctions when a bidder knows the own value but not how others will bid. To do this, we introduce a methodology to show how to make choices in strategic settings without assuming common knowledge or equilibrium behavior. Accordingly, we first eliminate environments that are believed not to occur and then find a robust rule that performs well in the remaining environments. We test our bids using data from laboratory experiments and the field and find that our...
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作者：Mahieux, Lucas
作者单位：Tilburg University
摘要：In this paper, I analyze the joint design of capital requirements and fair value reporting rules for financial institutions with illiquid assets. I specifically examine how prudential regulation aimed at solving agency problems affects financial institutions' incentives to use Level 2 versus Level 3 fair value reporting, as well as financial stability. Crucially, Level 3 reporting allows financial institutions to use their private information, whereas Level 2 fair values are only measured with...
