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作者：Laubach, T; Williams, JC
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The natural rate of interest-the real interest rate consistent with output equaling its natural rate and stable inflation-plays a central role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy. Estimation of the natural rate of interest, however, has received little attention. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate jointly time-varying natural rates of interest and output and trend growth. We find a close link between the natural rate of interest and the trend growth rate, as predicted by theory. Es...
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作者：Estrella, A; Rodrigues, AP; Schich, S
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We use recent econometric techniques for break testing to examine whether the empirical relationships are in fact stable. We consider continuous models, which predict either economic growth or inflation, a...
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作者：Kakkar, V
作者单位：City University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper examines the relationship between the relative price of nontraded goods and sectoral total factor productivities (TFPs) in the context of the Balassa-Samuelson model. With perfect capital mobility internationally and perfect factor mobility domestically, the relative price of nontraded goods is predicted to be independent of preferences over traded and nontraded goods, and completely determined by TFPs in the traded- and nontraded-goods sectors. Panel cointegration and unit root tes...
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作者：Harvey, A; Bernstein, J
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：This article uses unobserved-components time series models to capture the underlying trends in the quarterly deciles of U.S. hourly wages. Tests of stability and divergence are developed as a means of assessing changes in inequality. The decrease in the wage gender gap is examined, and the impact of changes in the minimum wage is assessed.
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作者：Lechner, M
摘要：This paper addresses microeconometric evaluation by matching methods when the programs under consideration are heterogeneous. Assuming that selection into the different subprograms and the potential outcomes are independent given observable characteristics, estimators based on different propensity scores are compared and applied to the analysis of active labor market policies in the Swiss region of Zurich. Furthermore, the issues of heterogeneous effects and aggregation are addressed. The resu...
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作者：Lízal, L; Svejnar, J
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：Strategic restructuring of firms through investment is key to a transition from plan to market. Using data on industrial firms in the Czech Republic during 1992-1998, we find that foreign-owned companies invest the most and cooperatives the least, that private firms do not invest more than state-owned ones, and that cooperatives and small firms are credit rationed. Given the large volume of nonperforming bank loans to firms and the high rate of investment of large state-owned and private firms...
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作者：Dearden, L; Ferri, J; Meghir, C
作者单位：University of Valencia; University of London; University College London; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris
摘要：The paper examines the effects of pupil-teacher ratios and type of school on educational attainment and wages using the British National Child Development Survey (NCDS). The NCDS is a panel survey that follows a cohort of individuals born in March 1958 and has a rich set of background variables recorded throughout the individuals' lives. The results suggest that. once we control for ability and fan-lily background, the pupil-teacher ratio has no impact on educational qualifications or on men's...
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作者：Keller, W; Levinson, A
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Georgetown University
摘要：This paper estimates the effect of changing environmental standards on patterns of international investment. The analysis advances the existing literature in three ways. First, we avoid comparing different countries by examining foreign direct investment in the United States and differences in pollution abatement costs among U.S. states. Data on environmental costs in U.S. states are more comparable than those for different countries, and U.S. states are more similar in other difficult-to-meas...
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作者：Harris, R; Robinson, C
作者单位：Durham University; University of Portsmouth
摘要：This paper compares the performance of U.K. plants that were acquired by the foreign-owned sector during 1987-1992 with other comparable subgroups of plants operating at the same time (including plants acquired by U.K.-owned companies). The principal aim is to consider the types of plants that were acquired and whether after acquisition they performed above or below average when compared to other manufacturing plants. The results show that foreign-owned enterprises acquired the most-productive...
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作者：Ravn, MO; Uhlig, H
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：This paper studies how the Hodrick-Prescott filter should be adjusted when changing the frequency of observations. It complements the results of Baxter and King (1999) with an analytical analysis, demonstrating that the filter parameter should be adjusted by multiplying it with the fourth power of the observation frequency ratios. This yields an HP parameter value of 6.25 for annual data given a value of 1600 for quarterly data. The relevance of the suggestion is illustrated empirically.
