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作者：Gilboa, Itzhak; Lieberman, Offer; Schmeidler, David
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; Yale University; Tel Aviv University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable Y-p based on certain characteristics X-p = (X-p(1)..., X-p(m)), and on a database consisting of (X-i(1),..., X-i(m), Y-i) for i = 1,..., n. A possible approach to combine past observations of X and Y with the current values of X to generate an assessment of Y is similarity-weighted averaging. It suggests that the predicted value of Y, (Y) over bar (s)(p), be the weighted average of all previously P observed values Y-i, where the weight of Y-i ...
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作者：Mazumder, B
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Previous studies, relying on short-term averages of fathers' earnings, have estimated the intergenerational elasticity (IGE) in earnings to be approximately 0.4. Due to persistent transitory fluctuations, these estimates have been biased down by approximately 30% or more. Using administrative data containing the earnings histories of parents and children,, the IGE is estimated to be around 0.6. This suggests that the United States is substantially less mobile than previous research indicated. ...
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作者：Peri, G
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Knowledge flows within and across countries may have important consequences for both productivity and innovation. We use data on 1.5 million parents and 4.5 million citations to estimate knowledge flows at the frontier of technology across 147 subnational regions during 1975-1996 within the frame of a gravity-like equation. We estimate that only 20% of average knowledge is learned outside the average region of origin, and only 9% is learned outside the country of origin. However, knowledge in ...
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作者：Crone, TM
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Since the 1950s the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has grouped the states into eight regions based primarily on cross-sectional similarities in their socioeconomic characteristics. This paper groups states into regions based on the similarities in their business cycles. We applied k-means cluster analysis to the cyclical components of Stock-Watson-type indices estimated at the state level to group the 48 contiguous states into eight regions with similar cycles. We then compare the cohesion ...
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作者：Obstfeld, M; Shambaugh, JC; Taylor, AM
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Dartmouth College; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some argue that under the modern float there could be limited monetary autonomy; others, that even under the classical gold standard domestic monetary autonomy was considerable. This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more ...
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作者：Booth, AL; Bryan, ML
作者单位：Australian National University; University of Essex
摘要：We confront the predictions of various theories with new training data from the British Household Panel Survey. We find that employer-financed training is associated with significantly higher wages at current and future firms, with a larger impact in future firms. This is consistent with human capital theory with credit constraints and with the new training literature assuming imperfectly competitive labor markets.We confront the predictions of various theories with new training data from the ...
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作者：Kremer, M
作者单位：Harvard University
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作者：Miguel, E; Gertler, P; Levine, DI
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A new stylized fact in development economics is the importance of social capital in promoting economic growth. This paper examines the effect of social capital on industrialization in Indonesia. We analyze a rich set of social capital and social interaction measures, including voluntary associational activity and levels of trust and informal cooperation. The main finding is that initial social capital does not predict subsequent industrial development across 274 Indonesian districts. Though th...
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作者：Heinrich, CJ; Mueser, PR; Troske, KR
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We explore the effects of temporary help employment on welfare recipients' subsequent employment and welfare dynamics. We find that any employment-in temporary help services or other sectors-yields substantial benefits compared to no employment. Although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages than those with jobs in other sectors, they experience faster subsequent wage growth. Two years later, they are no less likely to be employed, their wa...
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作者：O'Reilly, G; Whelan, K
摘要：This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behavior of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are gener...
