The trilemma in history: Tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Obstfeld, M; Shambaugh, JC; Taylor, AM
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Dartmouth College; University of California System; University of California Davis
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/0034653054638300
• 发表日期: 2005-08
• 页码: 423-438
• 关键词: tests; INDEPENDENCE; size

摘要

The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some argue that under the modern float there could be limited monetary autonomy; others, that even under the classical gold standard domestic monetary autonomy was considerable. This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history.