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作者：Becker, Christoph K.; Duersch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of Mannheim
摘要：In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre-specified ranges of inflation. In two large-scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the results: Shifting, compressing, or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed, and expanded forecasts. Quantifying this effect using the scale most widely used among central banks, we find that mean forecast, uncertainty, and ...
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作者：Ederer, Tim
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：I build a model of many-to-one matching with nontransferable utility involving many agents on both sides of the market, for example, workers and firms. Under parsimonious assumptions on preferences and assuming that matches are stable, I provide a tractable asymptotic characterization of the joint distribution of match characteristics. I find that one can identify the joint surplus of a match, but cannot separately identify workers' and firms' preferences from data on realized matches. Within-...
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作者：Santavirta, Torsten; Sarzosa, Miguel
作者单位：University of Helsinki; Stockholm University; Uppsala University; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：This study uses sociometric data to show that social connections in the classroom shape the diffusion of the negative externalities on cognitive achievement generated by abused and neglected peers. We find the strongest negative effects for students who are socially closest to the abused and neglected peer. The fade-out rate of the negative externality is such that being three peers away from an abused and neglected peer is equivalent to having no such peers. Although the inverse effect-distan...
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作者：Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Vernot, Corey; Kharel, Arjun
作者单位：Yale University; Yale University; University of Chicago
摘要：Seasonal migration is a common strategy to mitigate rural seasonal deprivation, but migrants need to remit money during the lean season to family members facing food shortages. We observe counterintuitively low remittances in rural Nepal during periods of seasonal hunger, and migrants return with remittances later during harvest when food is relatively abundant. To indirectly overcome this apparent constraint in remittance timing, we provide a $90 consumption loan to randomly selected rural ho...
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作者：Auerbach, Eric; Guo, Hongchang; Tabord-Meehan, Max
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Toronto
摘要：We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social interactions, social learning, information diffusion, disease and financial contagion, social capital formation, and more. Our approach works by first characterizing how an agent is linked in the network using the configuration of other agents and connections n...
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作者：Chen, Been-Lon; Liang, Fei-Chi
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan; National Chengchi University
摘要：This paper studies income inequality and optimal taxation policies in a talent-to-task assignment model of self-selection. Our model considers relative capital-skill complementarities across tasks, leading to the polarization of capital and technology by task complexity, which in turn drives the polarization of job and wage growth by talent levels. Regarding optimal tax policy, the wage compression channel remains effective through the trickle-down effect of subsidizing high-wage earners and t...
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作者：Garibaldi, Pietro; Gomes, Pedro; Sopraseuth, Thepthida
作者单位：University of Turin; University of London; Birkbeck University London; CY Cergy Paris Universite; Universite Bourgogne Europe
摘要：We study two first-order economic consequences of vertical mismatch, using a simple (neoclassical) model of under and overemployment. Individuals of high type can perform both skilled and unskilled jobs, but only a fraction of low-type workers can perform skilled jobs. People have different costs over these jobs. First, we calibrate the model to match U.S. CPS time series since the 1980s. To control for unobserved heterogeneity, we compute wages based on workers who have switched between skill...
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作者：Kinnerud, Karin
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：Housing and mortgage choices are among the largest financial decisions households make and they substantially impact households' liquidity. This paper explores how monetary policy affects aggregate demand by influencing these portfolio choices. To quantify this channel, I build a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model with long-term mortgages and endogenous house prices. I find that, although only a small fraction of households adjust their housing and mortgage holdings in response to an expansi...
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作者：Andersen, Torben G.; Todorov, Viktor; Zhou, Bo
作者单位：Northwestern University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：This paper focuses on the task of detecting local episodes involving violation of the standard It & ocirc; semimartingale assumption for financial asset prices in real time that might induce arbitrage opportunities. Our proposed detectors, defined as stopping rules, are applied sequentially to continually incoming high-frequency data. We show that they are asymptotically exponentially distributed in the absence of It & ocirc; semimartingale violations. On the other hand, when a violation occur...
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作者：Aydogan, Ilke; Baillon, Aurelien; Kemel, Emmanuel; Li, Chen
作者单位：IESEG School of Management; Universite de Lille; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite Lyon 2; Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 1; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); emlyon business school; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：Belief-updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices. In an experiment, we found that the subjects exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 19% of the signals that contradicted their priors. They were also conservative and acted as...
