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作者：Gregory, Jesse
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops and estimates a model of college basketball teams' search for scoring opportunities, to provide a benchmark of the winning margin distributions that should arise if teams' only goal is to win. I estimate the model's structural parameters using first-half play-by-play data from college games and simulate the estimated model's predicted winning margin distributions. Teams' optimal state-dependent strategies generate patterns that match those previously cited as evidence of po...
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作者：Granziera, Eleonora; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Bank of Finland; University of Southern California; Yonsei University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct pointwise coverage bands for impulse responses of sign-restricted SVARs are justified only from a Bayesian perspective. This paper demonstrates how to formulate the inference problem for sign-restricted SVARs w...
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作者：Ura, Takuya
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the exclusion restriction of an instrument and the deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment in the instrument. Even allowing for general measurement error (e.g., the measurement err...
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作者：Lale, Etienne
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：This paper provides new interpretations of the effects of rising economic turbulencean increase in the rate of skill depreciation upon job lossand its interaction with labor market institutions. We have three main results, based on a life-cycle model with labor market frictions and labor force participation decisions. First, rising economic turbulence during the 1970s and 1980s accounts for the decline in employment among older workers in the United States. Second, the interaction between turb...
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作者：Sanchez-Marcos, Virginia; Bethencourt, Carlos
作者单位：University of Canberra; Universidad de la Laguna
摘要：Spousal and survivor pensions are two important provisions of the US Social Security pension system. In this paper, we assess the impact of these benefits on the female employment rate in the context of a full life-cycle model in which households decide on female labor supply and savings. One important aspect of our model is that we allow for returns to labor market experience so that participation decisions affect not only current earnings and Social Security pension eligibility but also futu...
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作者：Chen, Xiaohong; Christensen, Timothy M.
作者单位：Yale University; New York University
摘要：This paper makes several important contributions to the literature about nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation and inference on a structural function h(0) and functionals of h(0). First, we derive sup-norm convergence rates for computationally simple sieve NPIV (series two-stage least squares) estimators of h(0) and its derivatives. Second, we derive a lower bound that describes the best possible (minimax) sup-norm rates of estimating h(0) and its derivatives, and show that th...
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作者：Bhattacharya, Debopam
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper develops nonparametric methods for welfare-analysis of economic changes in the common setting of multinomial choice. The results cover (a) simultaneous price-change of multiple alternatives, (b) introduction/elimination of an option, (c) changes in choice-characteristics, and (d) choice among nonexclusive alternatives. In these cases, Marshallian consumer surplus becomes path-dependent, but Hicksian welfare remains well-defined. We demonstrate that under completely unrestricted pref...
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作者：Druedahl, Jeppe; Jorgensen, Casper Nordal
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; University of Copenhagen
摘要：This paper addresses the credit card debt puzzle using a generalization of the buffer-stock consumption model with long-term revolving debt contracts. Closely resembling actual US credit card law, we assume that card issuers can always deny their cardholders access to new debt, but that they cannot demand immediate repayment of the outstanding balance. Hereby, current debt can potentially soften a household's borrowing constraint in future periods, and thus provides extra liquidity. We show th...
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作者：Aliprantis, Dionissi; Carroll, Daniel R.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：This paper studies neighborhood effects using a dynamic general equilibrium model. Households choose where to live and how much to invest in their child's human capital. The return on parents' investment is determined in part by their child's ability and in part by a neighborhood externality. We calibrate the model using data from Chicago in 1960, assuming that in previous decades households were randomly allocated to, and then could not move from, neighborhoods with different total factor pro...
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作者：Griffith, Rachel; Nesheim, Lars; O'Connell, Martin
作者单位：University of Manchester; University of Manchester; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University College London; University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Random utility models are widely used to study consumer choice. The vast majority of applications assume utility is linear in consumption of the outside good, which imposes that total expenditure on the subset of goods of interest does not affect demand for inside goods and restricts demand curvature and pass-through. We show that relaxing these restrictions can be important, particularly if one is interested in the distributional effects of a policy change, even in a market for a small budget...
