-
作者：Brand, Claus; Turunen, Jarkko; Buncic, Daniel
作者单位：European Central Bank; University of St Gallen
摘要：We use intraday changes in money market rates to construct indicators of news about monetary policy stemming separately from policy decisions and from official communication of the European Central Bank, and study their impact on the yield curve. We show that communication may lead to substantial revisions in expectations of monetary policy and, at the same time, exert a significant impact on interest rates at longer maturities. Thereby, the maturity response pattern to communication is hump-s...
-
作者：Booth, Alison; Coles, Melvyn
作者单位：Australian National University; University of Essex
摘要：Societies are characterized by customs governing the allocation of non-market goods such as marital partnerships. We explore how such customs affect the educational investment decisions of young singles and the subsequent joint labor supply decisions of partnered couples. We consider two separate matching paradigms-one where partners marry for money and the other where partners marry for romantic reasons orthogonal to productivity or debt. Whereas marrying for money generates greater investmen...
-
作者：Kuester, Keith; Wieland, Volker
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：In this paper, we aim to design a monetary policy for the euro area that is robust to the high degree of model uncertainty at the start of monetary union and allows for learning about model probabilities. To this end, we compare and ultimately combine Bayesian and worst-case analysis using four reference models estimated with pre-European Monetary Union (EMU) synthetic data. We start by computing the cost of insurance against model uncertainty, that is, the relative performance of worst-case o...
-
作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Aghion, Philippe; Griffith, Rachel; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University; University of London; University College London; University of Zurich
摘要：We study the determinants of vertical integration. We first derive a number of predictions regarding the relationship between technology intensity and vertical integration from a simple incomplete contracts model. Then, we investigate these predictions using plant-level data for the UK manufacturing sector. Most importantly, and consistent with the theoretical predictions, we find that the technology intensity of downstream (producer) industries is positively correlated with the likelihood of ...
-
作者：McKenzie, David; Gibson, John; Stillman, Steven
作者单位：University of Waikato
摘要：How much do migrants stand to gain in income from moving across borders? Answering this question is complicated by non-random selection of migrants from the general population, which makes it hard to obtain an appropriate comparison group of non-migrants. New Zealand allows a quota of Tongans to immigrate each year with a random ballot used to choose among the excess number of applicants. A unique survey conducted by the authors allows experimental estimates of the income gains from migration ...
-
作者：Buera, Francisco J.; Kaboski, Joseph P.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Two traditional explanations for structural changes are sector-biased technological progress and non-homothetic preferences. This paper integrates both into an otherwise standard growth model and quantitatively evaluates them vis-a-vis time series. The exercise identifies a set of puzzles for standard theories: (i) the model cannot account for the steep decline in manufacturing and rise in services in the later data; (ii) the standard model requires implausibly low elasticity of substitution a...
-
作者：Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：The properties of the stochastic process followed by aggregate consumption affect the estimates of the costs of fluctuations. This paper pursues two approaches to modeling consumption dynamics and measuring how much society dislikes fluctuations, one statistical and one economic. The statistical approach estimates the properties of consumption and calculates the costs of having consumption fluctuating around its mean growth. The paper finds that persistence is a crucial determinant of the cost...
-
作者：Bar, Talia; Basu, Kaushik
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：The paper uses an overlapping generations model to examine the effects of an increase in a household's land ownership on child labor. Consistent with previous studies, it found that small increases in land lead to increased child labor. However, as land continues to increase child labor declines. Further, even when an increase in land ownership causes an immediate rise in child labor, there are contexts where long-run child labor (that is aggregated over progenies) declines. (JEL: O10, D13, E20)
-
作者：Dur, Robert
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：We develop a model of manager-employee relationships where employees care more for their manager when they are more convinced that their manager cares for them. Managers can signal their altruistic feelings towards their employees in two ways: by offering a generous wage and by giving attention. Contrary to the traditional gift-exchange hypothesis, we show that altruistic managers may offer lower wages and nevertheless build up better social-exchange relationships with their employees than ego...
-
作者：Adda, Jerome; Banks, James; von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University College London; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
摘要：We study the effect of permanent income innovations on health for a prime-aged population. Using information on more than half a million individuals sampled over a 25-year period in three different cross-sectional surveys we aggregate data by date-of-birth cohort to construct a synthetic cohort data set with details of income, expenditure, socio-demographic factors, health outcomes, and selected risk factors. We then exploit structural and arguably exogenous changes in cohort incomes over the ...
