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作者：BATINA, RG
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：It is shown that the government's social security benefit policy may be time-inconsistent when a worker's future benefit depends on his labor earnings history. When the future benefit is tied to current labor supply, the benefit will distort the worker's labor supply decision ex ante of retirement, but not ex post. Any excess burden associated with the government's benefit policy is taken into account in the open loop policy game, but is ignored in the closed loop game. This will generally imp...
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作者：FUHRER, J; MOORE, G
摘要：We investigate relationships between asset prices and inflation in a modern Keynesian model in which monetary policy controls inflation by manipulating the federal funds rate. The indicator properties of asset prices are quite sensitive to the monetary policy rule. Including the asset prices themselves in the reaction function can invert the sense of the indicator properties. Targeting the asset prices is tantamount to targeting the real interest rate: when all of the weight in the reaction fu...
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作者：MELTZER, AH
作者单位：American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
摘要：Don Patinkin's discussion of alternative interpretations of Keynes's General Theory gave considerable weight to an author's motivation, particularly mine. Patinkin also restates his view that the General Theory offers a short-run disequilibrium approach. I suggest that textual interpretation in economics should not consider motives because better methods are available and are now used. I propose three standards. Applying these standards, I find little support for Patinkin's interpretation of t...
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作者：GUISO, L; JAPPELLI, T; TERLIZZESE, D
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We test for the presence of precautionary saving using a self-reported measure of earnings uncertainty drawn from the 1989 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth. The effect of uncertainty on wealth accumulation is consistent with the theory of precautionary saving and with decreasing prudence, but explains only a small fraction of saving. The results cast doubts on the empirical relevance of precautionary saving in response to earnings uncertainty, but are not in contrast with the impo...
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作者：COLEMAN, WJ; GILLES, C; LABADIE, P
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Duke University
摘要：We extend recent models of liquidity to study how a systematic relationship between monetary shocks and output affects the average real short-term interest rate.
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作者：EVANS, CL
摘要：Productivity shocks play a central role in real business cycles as an exogenous impulse to macroeconomic activity. However, measured Solow-Prescott residuals do not behave as an exogenous impulse. Rather, econometric evidence provided in this paper indicates that (1) money, interest rates, and government spending Granger-cause these impulses, and (2) a substantial component of the variance of these impulses (between one quarter and one half) is attributable to variations in aggregate demand. T...
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作者：RAMEY, VA
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper tests the relative importance of technology shocks and financial shocks as sources of fluctuations in money. The model extends the theory of King and Plosser (1984) by recognizing that both money and trade credit provide transactions services. Under certain conditions, the co-movements between money and trade credit can reveal the nature of the underlying shocks. The empirical results strongly suggest that shocks to the financial system account for most of the fluctuations in money ...
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作者：IKEDA, S; SHIBATA, A
作者单位：Osaka Metropolitan University
摘要：In a continuous-time model of stock prices with dividends growing stochastically we examine bubbles which depend on market fundamentals. The fundamentals dependency stabilizes bubble dynamics. They can be stochastically stable, saddlepoint-stable, or unstable. Stock prices with these bubbles can be less volatile than fundamental prices. These bubbles exhibit various transition patterns, such as nonmonotonic movements and monotonic shrinkage in magnitude and volatility. The sign of their correl...
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作者：KELLY, M
摘要：Recent evidence on output convergence across economies has been widely interpreted as falsifying the predictions of endogenous growth theory. This paper shows, however, that nonconvergence is an artifact of the deterministic structure of endogenous growth models: when stochastic factor productivity is introduced, convergence tends to occur despite nondiminishing returns to capital and persistent growth. For the case of constant returns to capital, it is shown that output paths of different eco...
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作者：DONALDSON, RG
摘要：We use weekly data (1867-1933) to investigate the sources of banking and financial panics. We find that, while a panic's exact starting date is unpredictable, one can identify environments conducive to panics; a lack of liquidity in financial markets seems to be a key source. Results also reveal the effectiveness of the Aldrich-Vreeland Act in elastizing the money supply and shortening the panic of 1914 and suggest that the panic of 1933 may have been caused by a speculative attack on the gold...
