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作者：MISHKIN, FS
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper resolves the puzzle of why a strong Fisher effect (a high correlation between the level of interest rates and inflation) occurs only during certain periods but not for others. Empirical evidence finds no support for a short-run Fisher effect in which a change in expected inflation is associated with a change in interest rates, but supports the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in which inflation and interest rates have a common stochastic trend when they exhibit trends. These re...
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作者：CANOVA, F
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：In post-WWII experience U.S. monetary authorities have attempted to eliminate seasonal fluctuations in prices and nominal interest rates. Developments in financial markets and recently discovered empirical regularities regarding the seasonal cycle seem to make these activities questionable. Using a money-in-the-utility-function model this paper analyzes the welfare properties of price and interest rate smoothing policies and the sense in which the distinction between seasonal and cyclical fluc...
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作者：CUMBY, RE; HUIZINGA, J
作者单位：University of Chicago; New York University
摘要：Many economic models yield the prediction that the unobservable conditional expectations of two series are perfectly correlated. In this paper, we propose an informative method for investigating this prediction. The method involves examining the sample correlation coefficient for the fitted values from unrestricted ordinary least squares regressions, and the estimated standard error and confidence interval of this correlation coefficient. The method is designed to supplement existing statistic...
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作者：BUFFIE, EF
摘要：This paper analyzes the impact of public sector price increases combined with employment cuts in a dynamic optimizing model. If the government adopts a tough layoff policy, the real wage is highly flexible and the reforms are perceived to be permanent, there is a strong presumption that real output will be higher and inflation lower over all time horizons. Problems may arise during the adjustment process, however, when the reforms are not credible or the real wage adjusts slowly to clear the l...
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作者：MOURMOURAS, A; RUSSELL, S
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study welfare and equivalence relationships between two schemes for financing a recurrent real expenditure: reserve-requirement-augmented seigniorage (RRS) and seigniorage/deposit tax combinations (SD). The model we employ includes overlapping generations, fiat currency, and a risky physical asset. Its implications depend critically on whether it is specified so as to be 'diversifying' - so that fiat currency has value when the expenditure is financed via optimal taxation of asset returns. ...
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作者：LEEPER, EM; GORDON, DB
作者单位：Clemson University
摘要：A short-run negative relationship between monetary aggregates and interest rates - the `liquidity effect' - is central to discussions of monetary policy. This paper searches for this empirical relationship. We investigate whether the characterization of the liquidity effect is sensitive to: (i) changes in sample period, (ii) conditioning the correlations on past information, (iii) assuming money growth is exogenous, and (iv) treating monetary changes as anticipated or unanticipated. The correl...
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作者：ELLIS, DM; FLANNERY, MJ
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：Uninsured bank liabilities should offer a promised yield that compensates depositors for their expected default losses. However, the conjectural guarantees available to large U.S. banking firms makes it questionable whether large depositors should or do feel themselves exposed to credit risk. Prior papers have evaluated the determinants of bank risk premia using cross-sectional data, with relatively inconclusive results. This paper investigates the same issue in a methodologically independent ...
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作者：WALLER, CJ
摘要：In this paper, a bargaining model is developed to analyze the appointment of central bankers in a two-party political system. The major results of the paper are: 1) The party in power will appoint partisans early on but later appointments will be increasingly moderate in their views concerning monetary policy. 2) Changing the timing of the appointment of the board chairman from the end of a president's term in office to the first period of the president's term will lead to more partisan moneta...
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作者：COOPER, RW; HALTIWANGER, JC
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Existing empirical evidence suggests that output is more variable than consumption so that production smoothing is not apparently present. In this paper, we investigate some macroeconomic implications of the proposition that the empirical evidence reflects the presence of some firms in the economy that produce with nonconvex technologies. Overall, when activities are sufficiently complementary and inventory holding is sufficiently costly, nonconvexities at the firm level can generate a pattern...
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作者：CHATTERJEE, S; RAVIKUMAR, B
作者单位：University of Iowa; University of Virginia
摘要：We develop a neoclassical capital accumulation model with seasonal perturbations to tastes and technology. We calibrate the model and use it to study the impact of seasonal demand and supply perturbations on economic activity. We find that the impact is largely limited to a single quarter. We also use our model to isolate the seasonal movements in U.S. quarterly data and then compute the seasonal variations in tastes and technology that approximately explain these movements. We find comovement...
