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作者：Gomes, J; Greenwood, J; Rebelo, S
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of Pennsylvania; Northwestern University
摘要：A search-theoretic model of equilibrium unemployment is constructed and shown to be consistent with the key regularities of the labor market and business cycle. The two distinguishing features of the model are: (i) the decision to accept or reject jobs is modeled explicitly, and (ii) markets are incomplete. The model is well suited to address a number of interesting policy questions. Two such applications are provided: the impact of unemployment insurance, and the welfare costs of business cyc...
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作者：Chatterjee, S; Carlino, GA
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：In this paper we document that the disparity in employment densities across US metropolitan areas has lessened substantially over the postwar period. To account for this deconcentration of metropolitan employment, we develop a system-of-cities model in which an increase in aggregate metropolitan employment clauses congestion costs to increase faster for the more dense metro areas. A calibrated version of the model reveals that the (roughly) two-and-a-half-fold increase in postwar aggregate met...
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作者：Holmes, TJ; Schmitz, JA
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：There is a large and growing theoretical literature studying the allocation of individuals and their effort amongst productive and unproductive entrepreneurial activities. Trade and competition between regions have been recognized as potentially powerful forces limiting unproductive entrepreneurial activities. In this paper we extend the technology-ladder model of Grossman and Helpman to study this issue and demonstrate conditions under which lowering of tariffs leads to a shift from unproduct...
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作者：Flodén, M
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Government debt and redistributive taxation can help people to smooth consumption when facing uninsurable individual specific risk. I examine the effects that variations in public debt and transfers have on risk sharing, efficiency, and the distribution of resources. I find that risk sharing can be improved significantly by both debt and transfers, but that debt has adverse effects on equity. When used in isolation, debt will enhance welfare if transfers are lower than optimal. However, the be...
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作者：Agell, J; Persson, M
作者单位：Uppsala University; Stockholm University
摘要：In this paper, we analyze government budget balance within a simple model of endogenous growth. For the AK model, simple analytical conditions for a tax cut to be self-financing can be derived. The critical variable is not the tax rate per se, but the transfer-adjusted tax rate. We discuss some conceptual issues in dynamic revenue analysis, and we explain why previous studies have arrived at seemingly contradictory results. Finally, we perform an empirical study of the transfer-adjusted tax ra...
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作者：Brennan, MJ; Xia, YH
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A dynamic general equilibrium model of stock prices is developed which yields a stock price volatility and equity premium that are close to the historical values. Non-observability of the expected dividend growth rate introduces an element of learning which increases the volatility of stock price. Calibration to the U.S. dividend and consumption processes yield interest rate and stock price processes that conform closely to the styled facts for the U.S, capital market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Scienc...
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作者：Ball, L
作者单位：Bank of England; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：This paper investigates the long-run demand for MI in the postwar United States. Previous studies, based on data ending in the late 1980s, are inconclusive about the parameters of postwar money demand. This paper obtains precise estimates of these parameters by extending the data through 1996. The income elasticity of money demand is approximately 0.5, and the interest semi-elasticity is approximately -0.05. These parameters are significantly smaller in absolute value than the corresponding pa...
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作者：Engen, EM; Gruber, J
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Models of precautionary saving imply that households will hold more assets when faced with greater income uncertainty. However, previous empirical studies of income uncertainty have produced somewhat mixed support for the precautionary saving hypothesis. In this paper, we note that differences in the state-contingent income stream available to workers through the unemployment insurance (UI) program provides an excellent source of variation for testing the presence of a precautionary savings mo...
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作者：Kozicki, S; Tinsley, PA
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper links the term structure to perceptions of monetary policy. Long-horizon forecasts of short rates required by no-arbitrage term structure models are heavily influenced by the endpoints, or limiting conditional forecasts, of the short rate process. Common assumptions that the short rate is mean-reverting or contains a unit root are shown to generate unrealistic yield predictions. Failures occur because these assumptions inadequately account for historical shifts in market perceptions...
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作者：A'Hearn, B; Woitek, U
作者单位：University of Glasgow; Franklin & Marshall College
摘要：This paper establishes stylized facts about business cycles in the late 19th century, using spectral analysis techniques which allow an intuitive description and analysis of cyclical structure in economic fluctuations. Analysis of industrial production data for 13 countries permits the following generalizations. In the advanced North Atlantic economies, a fairly regular long cycle with a periodicity of 7-10 years is identified in all countries. This component explains a substantial fraction of...
