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作者：Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; Smetters, Kent; Walliser, Jan
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University; The World Bank
摘要：Financing Social Security benefits at current levels implies significant increases in payroll taxes within the next 20 years under current US demographic developments. Using a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations model with realistic patterns of fertility and lifespan extension, this study shows that future generations would be harmed during the demographic transition due to rising pavroll taxes, which crowd out savings and slow real wage growth below the rate of technological progress....
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作者：Lucas, Deborah
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Cateau, Gino
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：Empirical Taylor rules are much less aggressive than those derived from optimization-based models. This paper analyzes whether accounting for uncertainty across competing models and (or) real-time data considerations can explain this discrepancy. It considers a central bank that chooses a Taylor rule in a framework that allows for an aversion to the second-order risk associated with facing multiple models and measurement-error configurations. The paper finds that if the central bank cares stro...
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作者：Evans, Charles L.; Marshall, David A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Macroeconomic shocks account for most of the variability of nominal Treasury yields, inducing parallel shifts in the level of the yield curve. We develop a new approach to identifying macroeconomic shocks that exploits model-based empirical shock measures. Technology shocks shift yields through their effect on expected inflation and the term premium. Shocks to preferences for current consumption affect yields through their impact on real rates and expected inflation. For both shocks, the syste...
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作者：Albanesi, Stefania
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：Cross-country evidence on inflation and income inequality suggests that they are positively related. This article explores the hypothesis that this correlation is the outcome of a distributional conflict underlying the determination of government policies. A political economy model is presented in which equilibrium inflation is positively related to the degree of inequality in income due to the relative vulnerability to inflation of low income households. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights rese...
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作者：Huang, Kevin X. D.; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Vanderbilt University; Emory University
摘要：International trade in intermediate inputs and, increasingly, in goods produced at multiple stages of processing has been widely studied in the real trade literature. We assess the role of this feature of modern world trade in accounting for some stylized facts about international business cycles. Our model with staggered prices and trade in intermediates across four stages of processing does well in explaining the observed international correlations in aggregate quantities, and it performs mu...
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作者：Nosal, Ed; Wallace, Neil
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：A simple matching-model of money with the potential for counterfeiting is constructed. In contrast to the existing literature, lotteries are included. These provide scope for the operation of the intuitive criterion of Cho and Kreps. The application of that refinement is shown to imply that there is no equilibrium with counterfeiting. If the cost of producing counterfeits is low enough, then there is no monetary equilibrium. Otherwise, there is a monetary equilibrium without counterfeiting. In...
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作者：Adam, Klaus
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper determines optimal nominal demand policy in a flexible price economy in which firms pay limited attention to aggregate variables. Firms' inattentiveness gives rise to idiosyncratic information errors and imperfect common knowledge about the shocks hitting the economy. This is shown to have strong implications for optimal nominal demand policy. In particular, if firms' prices are strategic complements and economic shocks display little persistence, monetary policy has strong real eff...
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作者：Basistha, Arabinda; Nelson, Charles R.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; West Virginia University
摘要：Forward-looking versions of the New Keynesian Phillips curve imply that the output gap, the deviation of the actual output from its natural level due to nominal rigidities, drives the dynamics of inflation relative to expected inflation. We exploit this to set up a bivariate unobserved component model for extracting new estimates of the output gap in the US. The gap estimates are large and persistent even after allowing for correlated trend and cycle shock. We then augment our model to use the...
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作者：Schaumburg, Ernst; Tambalotti, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Northwestern University
摘要：We propose a simple framework for analyzing a continuum of monetary policy rules characterized by differing degrees of credibility, in which commitment and discretion become special cases of what we call quasi-commitment. The monetary policy authority is assumed to formulate optimal commitment plans, to be tempted to renege on them, and to succumb to this temptation with a constant exogenous probability known to the private sector. By interpreting this probability as a continuous measure of th...
