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作者：Calvo, GA
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：The central question raised in this paper is the desirability of state-contingent contracts under imperfect policy credibility. The paper shows a benchmark case in which imperfect credibility of a trade liberalization program is distorting, and the distortion is magnified by state-contingent markets. in addition, it examines the welfare implications of gaining credibility, concluding that, in general, more credibility is better than less, and examines the moral hazard faced by policymakers in ...
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作者：Jeanne, O; Masson, P
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper investigates the theoretical properties of a class of escape clause models of currency crises as well as their applicability to empirical work. We show that under some conditions these models give rise to an arbitrarily large number of equilibria, as well as cyclic or chaotic dynamics for the devaluation expectations. We then propose an econometric technique, based on the Markov-switching regimes framework, by which these models can be brought to the data. We illustrate this empiric...
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作者：Leamer, EE
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：The net imports of labor embodied in US international trade has been a fairly small and stable share of the US labor force. From this fact one would like to draw two conclusions: (1) Trade barriers would not have had much effect on earnings. (2) It is technology, not trade that is the driving force for rising income inequality in the US. The first conclusion is valid if the US economy is log-linear and the number of tradables is equal to the number of factors. The second is valid if the global...
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作者：Pizer, SD
作者单位：ABT Associates
摘要：I develop a model where the mode of competition in trade affects wage differentials. Imports undermine wage premia under quantity competition and increase premia under price competition. I test these predictions after combining industry-level data with premia estimated by quantile regressions. Wage premia and imports are positively related for union and negatively related for nonunion workers. As predicted, the positive relationship is limited to unconstrained industry-years, and the negative ...
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作者：Flood, RP; Marion, NP
作者单位：Dartmouth College; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We show that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. We illustrate this point by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a first-generation model of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits and anticipatory price-setting behavior. We use the model to interpret ...
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作者：Park, JH
作者单位：Wayne State University
摘要：This paper analyzes how changes in the structure and environment of trade agreements between a small and a large country affect the efficient frontier of those self-enforcing agreements and hence, negotiation outcomes. Using the autarky punishment instead of the interior Nash punishment may provide the small country with greater bargaining power. Negotiating direct transfers under free trade instead of reciprocal tariff reductions improves the worst possible negotiation outcome for the small c...
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作者：Drabek, Z
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作者：Fischer, R; Serra, P
作者单位：Universidad de Chile
摘要：We examine the behavior of a country that imposes a minimum standard (MS) on a good produced by a domestic firm and a foreign competitor. Costs rise with the standard, and there is a fixed setup cost of producing at two standard levels. Depending on the size of the foreign market and the fixed setup cost, the domestic firm will lobby for the lowest MS that excludes the foreign firm or for no standard at all. When there is a consumption externality, the MS chosen by the domestic social planner ...
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作者：Krishna, P
作者单位：Brown University
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作者：Dinopoulos, E; Thompson, P
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：We estimate two versions of Romer's model of endogenous technological change that allow for population growth and human capital accumulation. In one of these versions, estimates from international cross-sectional data yield parameter values that are consistent with prior information, and tests of overidentifying restrictions are not rejected. Trade openness increases the effectiveness with which human capital generates new knowledge, and improves the model's predictive performance. The Romer m...
