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作者：Kilian, Lutz; Park, Cheolbeom
作者单位：Korea University
摘要：It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long-run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry-specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmissi...
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作者：Fang, Lei; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：The large differences in hours of work across rich countries reflect large differences in both employment to population ratios and hours per worker. We imbed the canonical model of labor supply into a matching model to produce a model with operative intensive and extensive margins, and assess the implications of several policies for changes along the two margins. Tax and transfer policies lead to decreases along both margins, whereas regulations that increase the cost of creating or maintainin...
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作者：Pavoni, Nicola
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：This article introduces the possibility of a deterioration in job opportunities during unemployment into the standard optimal unemployment insurance (UI) design framework and characterizes the efficient UI scheme. The optimal program may display two novel features, which cannot be present in stationary models. First, UI transfers are bounded below by a minimal assistance level that arises endogenously in the efficient contract. Second, the optimal scheme implies a wage subsidy for long-term un...
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作者：Trogdon, Justin G.
作者单位：Research Triangle Institute
摘要：Centralization of cardiac services can increase hospital surgery volumes and decrease access for patients. This study estimates the effects of changes in the regulation of cardiac services on treatments, mortality, and utility. Demand for surgery services by heart attack victims who form expectations of the need for and productivity of surgery in their choice of hospital and treatment is estimated. The results indicate that mortality and ex ante utility are insensitive to moderate changes in p...
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作者：Zanna, Luis-Felipe
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：In order to maintain competitiveness, governments in developing economies seem to have pursued purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate rules, by adjusting the nominal devaluation rate in response to real exchange rate deviations from an intermediate target. This article shows that these rules are likely to induce macroeconomic instability, as they generate sunspot-driven fluctuations that are in fact learnable by agents in the Expectational-Stability sense. It finds that the existence of t...
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作者：Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel; Owens, Raymond
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：We document several empirical regularities regarding the evolution of urban structure in the largest U. S. metropolitan areas over the period 1980-90. These regularities relate to changes in resident population, employment, occupations, as well as the number and size of establishments in different sections of the metropolitan area. We then propose a theory of urban structure that emphasizes the location and internal structure decisions of firms. In particular, firms can decide to locate their ...
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作者：Koop, Gary; Potter, Simon M.
作者单位：University of Strathclyde; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This article discusses Bayesian inference in change-point models. The main existing approaches treat all change-points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change-points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change-points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as noninformative, and tr...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Sapriza, Horacio
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：We extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power. We show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions. Under high political stability, political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlatio...
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作者：Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos
作者单位：University of Leicester
摘要：This article considers an equilibrium search model, where firms post wages using information on workers' employment status. Earnings differentials between workers of different employment statuses are driven by firms' ability to discriminate workers' reservation wages. I study how these wage policies depend on firms' and workers' characteristics, and how these policies affect the wage distribution. The model delivers new predictions for the amount of wage dispersion that can be generated with s...
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作者：Chambers, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos; Schlagenhauf, Don E.
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University; University System of Maryland; Towson University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This article accounts for the boom in homeownership from 1994 to 2005 by examining the roles of demographic changes and mortgage innovations. To measure the impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. In the long-run, mortgage innovation accounts for between 56 and 70% of the increase whereas demographics account for a much smaller portion. We test this result by considering changes in mortgages after 1940. We find that th...
