-
作者：Koop, Gary; Korobilis, Dimitris
作者单位：University of Strathclyde; Universite Catholique Louvain
摘要：We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods that incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coefficients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We find that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coefficient models. We also provide...
-
作者：He, Yin; Maskus, Keith E.
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of International Business & Economics
摘要：We develop a general equilibrium model of endogenous innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI). In the benchmark model, Northern firms innovate with the help of localized spillovers, and a share of new products is transferred to Southern production via FDI. An increase in Southern imitation risk reduces this share. In the extended model, we permit higher-cost Southern innovation, which yields inefficient specialization in both regions and reduces global growth. However, it generates a U-s...
-
作者：Etro, Federico
作者单位：Universita Ca Foscari Venezia
摘要：I characterize the optimal export promoting policy for international markets whose structure is endogenous. Contrary to the ambiguous results of strategic trade policy for duopolies, it is always optimal to subsidize exports when entry is endogenous, under both quantity and price competition. With homogenous goods the optimal export subsidy is a fraction 1/epsilon of the price, where epsilon is the elasticity of demand (the exact opposite of the optimal export tax in the neoclassical trade the...
-
作者：Bajari, Patrick; Hahn, Jinyong; Hong, Han; Ridder, Geert
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; University of Southern California
摘要：We view a game abstractly as a semiparametric mixture distribution and study the semiparametric efficiency bound of this model. Our results suggest that a key issue for inference is the number of equilibria compared to the number of outcomes. If the number of equilibria is sufficiently large compared to the number of outcomes, root-n consistent estimation of the model will not be possible. We also provide a simple estimator in the case when the efficiency bound is strictly above zero.
-
作者：Caponi, Vincenzo
摘要：This article presents an intergenerational self-selection model of migration and education that is capable of explaining the evolution of earnings and education across three generations of immigrants. By structurally estimating the model, it is possible to quantify the sacrifices made by the first generation of Mexican immigrants for the benefits of future generations. In particular, the estimation results suggest that there is a significant one time loss of human capital of immigrants upon mi...
-
作者：Beresteanu, Arie; Li, Shanjun
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Resources for the Future
摘要：We analyze the determinants of hybrid vehicle demand, focusing on gasoline prices and income tax incentives. We find that hybrid vehicle sales in 2006 would have been 37% lower had gasoline prices stayed at the 1999 levels, and the effect of the federal income tax credit program is estimated at 20% in 2006. Under the program, the cost of reducing gasoline consumption was $75 per barrel in government revenue and that of CO2 emission reduction was $177 per ton. We show that the cost effectivenes...
-
作者：Chen, Been-Lon; Chen, Hung-Ju; Wang, Ping
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); National Taiwan University; Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：We construct a search model with endogenous human capital and labor participation to study the growth effects of short-run frictions and the effectiveness of human capital policies. Employment, learning effort, and output growth increase with more effective learning, better labor-market matching, lower job separation, or less costly vacancy creation. Although output growth, employment, vacancy creation, and learning and search effort are most responsive to changes in a human capital policy tha...
-
作者：Gassebner, Martin; Gaston, Noel; Lamla, Michael J.
作者单位：Bond University
摘要：This article examines whether a country's economic reforms are affected by reforms adopted by other countries. Our theoretical model predicts that reforms are more likely when factors of production are internationally mobile and reforms are pursued in other economies. Using the change in the Index of Economic Freedom as the measure of market-liberalizing reforms and panel data (144 countries, 1995-2006), we test our model. We find evidence of the spillover of reforms. Moreover, consistent with...
-
作者：McCloud, Nadine; Hong, Yongmiao
作者单位：Cornell University; University West Indies Mona Jamaica; Xiamen University
摘要：We introduce a class of generally applicable specification tests for constant and dynamic structures of conditional correlations in multivariate GARCH models. The tests are robust to the presence of time-varying higher-order conditional moments of unknown form and are pure significance tests. The tests can identify linear and nonlinear misspecifications in conditional correlations. Our approach does not necessitate a particular parameter estimation method and distributional assumption on the e...
-
作者：Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Gervais, Martin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; University of Southampton; University of Iowa
摘要：We document that home ownership of households with heads aged 25-44 years fell substantially between 1980 and 2000 and recovered only partially during the 2001-5 housing boom. The 1980-2000 decline in young home ownership occurred as improvements in mortgage opportunities seemingly made it easier to purchase a home. This article uses an equilibrium life-cycle model calibrated to micro and macro evidence to understand these developments. A trend toward marrying later mechanically lowers young h...
