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作者：Levine, David K.; Martinelli, Cesar
作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London; George Mason University; Washington University (WUSTL); George Mason University
摘要：We argue that traditional voting models fail to fully explain the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. Instead, we model elections as a competition between incentive schemes to mobilize voters. We elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections, as the potential to be pivotal motivates voters instead of exclusively costly incentives as in nonclose elections. We show that, under those conditions, better voter targeting results in tighter races and incr...
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作者：Liu, Xuewen; Wang, Pengfei; Xu, Sichuang
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Peking University; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
摘要：We present a tractable model that accommodates asset-market sentiment in a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) setting, allowing us to quantitatively evaluate sentiment-driven macroeconomic fluctuations. In our model, changes in households' perceived uncertainty about housing prices lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations in housing prices, which then impact investment and output through entrepreneurs' collateral constraints. Household sentiment shocks hence are transmitted and...
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作者：Ma, Xiao
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University
摘要：China has expanded the yearly quota on newly admitted college students by more than seven times since 1999. How did this massive education expansion affect firms' export and innovation choices? I document that after this expansion impacted the labor market, manufacturing firms' innovation increased considerably, especially among exporting firms, accompanied by sizable skill upgrading of exports. I then develop a multi-industry spatial equilibrium model, featuring skill intensity differences ac...
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作者：Hanazono, Makoto; Kudoh, Noritaka
作者单位：Nagoya University; Nagoya University
摘要：This article presents a new perspective on the nature of market power through the lens of firm prominence. We build a model of oligopolistic price competition with sequential consumer search, showing that a larger firm sets a higher price than its smaller competitors. Consumers are more likely to encounter sellers from a larger firm both immediately and in future interactions, resulting in less-elastic demand for that firm. Small firms can free-ride on the prominent firm's market power to rais...
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作者：Atkeson, Andrew G.; Kopecky, Karen A.; Zha, Tao
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a Bayesian method for estimating the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and discover four key findings that expose the limitations of current structural epidemiological models . (i) Death growth rates declined rapidly from high levels during the initial 30 days of the epidemic worldwide. (ii) After this initial period, these rates fluctuated substantially around 0%. (iii) The cross-location standard deviation of death growth rates decreased rapidly in the first 10 days but remained high af...
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作者：Hyun, Jay; Kim, Ryan; Lee, Byoungchan
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Johns Hopkins University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We study business cycles with cyclical returns to scale. Contrary to tightly parameterized conventional production functions, we empirically identify strong input complementarity that leads to procyclical returns to scale. We, therefore, propose a flexible translog production function that allows complementarity-induced procyclical returns to scale. We integrate this function into a standard medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our estimated model with input complementari...
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作者：Cosaert, Sam; Potoms, Tom
作者单位：University of Antwerp; University of Sussex; University of Sussex
摘要：We study intertemporal choice through a novel and flexible framework that accounts for savoring of future consumption and memories of past consumption. The model uses standard intertemporal budget constraints but enriches preference structures with utility from anticipation, remembering, and experience. We also present an internal commitment mechanism that ensures dynamic consistency. We provide a revealed preference characterization of this model and apply it to quarterly consumption data fro...
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作者：Letina, Igor; Schmutzler, Armin; Seibel, Regina
作者单位：University of Bern; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Zurich; University of Toronto
摘要：This article provides a theory of strategic innovation project choice by incumbents and start-ups which serves as a foundation for the analysis of acquisition policy. We show that, in spite of countervailing incentives on incumbents and entrants, prohibiting acquisitions has a weakly negative overall innovation effect. We provide conditions determining the size of the effect and conditions under which it is zero. We further analyze the effects of less restrictive policies, including merger rem...
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作者：Abraham, Arpad; Brendler, Pavel; Carceles-Poveda, Eva
作者单位：University of Bristol; University of Bonn; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：One important feature of capital tax reforms is the uncertainty regarding their duration. In a standard heterogeneous firm framework with financial frictions, we model policy uncertainty by assuming that reforms may be either repealed or maintained with some probability every period. We illustrate the effects of policy uncertainty in the context of the 2003 Bush tax cuts (2003 Job Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act), which lowered shareholder taxes. We show that policy uncertainty regarding ...
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作者：Li, Fei; Murry, Charles; Tian, Can; Zhou, Yiyi
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Boston College; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：We present a directed search model of intermediaries' dynamic inventory and revenue management. Search frictions hinder instantaneous replenishment, prompting intermediaries to utilize dynamic inventory-based pricing and ordering strategies. In equilibrium, when inventory is high, an intermediary posts a lower retail price to speed up sales and depresses wholesale price to slow down purchases. We characterize the evolution dynamics of inventory holdings and their steady-state distribution, and...
