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作者:Hartung, Benjamin; Jung, Philip; Kuhn, Moritz
作者单位:European Central Bank; Dortmund University of Technology; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Mannheim; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要:A key question in labour market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labour market dynamics. We provide new answers to this old question by studying one of the largest unemployment insurance reforms in recent decades, the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates into unemployment account for 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focussing on job-finding rates. Exploiting institutional ...
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作者:Kacperczyk, Marcin; Nosal, Jaromir; Sundaresan, Savitar
作者单位:Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要:We study the distributional effects of asset ownership on price informativeness in a general equilibrium model. The model features investors (oligopolists) with different degrees of price impact and abilities to learn about individual asset payoffs from private and price signals, and a competitive fringe that only learns from asset prices. We show that price informativeness is non-monotonic in the oligopolists' aggregate size, decreasing in the sector's concentration and in the size of the pas...
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作者:Londono-Velez, Juliana; Avila-Mahecha, Javier
作者单位:University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要:We study behavioural responses to personal wealth taxes in Colombia. We utilise tax microdata from 1993 to 2016 linked with the leaked Panama Papers to investigate offshoring to the country's key tax havens. We leverage variation from discrete jumps in tax liability and four major reforms to the wealth tax system, including changes in tax rates and duration, using bunching and difference-in-difference techniques. We find compelling evidence that taxpayers instantly reduce the wealth they decla...
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作者:Bilbiie, Florin O.
作者单位:University of Cambridge; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要:THANK is a tractable heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model that captures analytically core micro-heterogeneity channels of quantitative-HANK: cyclical inequality and risk; self-insurance, precautionary saving, and realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. I use it to elucidate key transmission mechanisms and dynamic properties of HANK models. Countercyclical inequality yields aggregate-demand amplification and makes determinacy with Taylor rules more stringent; but solving th...
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作者:Auray, Stephane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位:Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; University of British Columbia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Lausanne
摘要:This paper shows that the outcome of trade wars for tariffs and welfare will be affected by the monetary policy regime. The key message is that trade policy interacts with monetary policy in a way that magnifies the welfare costs of discretionary monetary policy in an international setting. If countries follow monetary policies of flexible inflation targeting, trade wars are relatively mild, with low equilibrium tariffs and small welfare costs. Discretionary monetary policies imply much higher...
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作者:Gu, Jiaying; Russell, Thomas M.; Stringham, Thomas
作者单位:University of Toronto; Carleton University; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要:This article provides a unified framework for studying the identification of counterfactual parameters in a general class of discrete outcome models, allowing for endogenous regressors and multidimensional latent variables, all without parametric distributional assumptions. Our main theoretical result is that, when the covariates are discrete, the infinite-dimensional latent variable distribution can be replaced with a finite-dimensional version that is equivalent from an identification perspe...
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作者:Bai, Jie
作者单位:Harvard University
摘要:Quality provision is often low in many developing markets, and firms commonly lack a reputation for quality. This article examines this issue both theoretically and empirically in the context of retail watermelon markets in China. I first demonstrate the existence of significant asymmetric information on quality between sellers and buyers, as well as the absence of a quality premium at baseline. To explain this, I develop a theoretical model that highlights the role of consumer beliefs and cos...
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作者:Cardoza, Marvin; Grigoli, Francesco; Pierri, Nicola; Ruane, Cian
作者单位:International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund; European Central Bank; Central Bank of Ireland
摘要:This paper documents that production networks play an essential role in the job search and matching process. We document five facts about worker mobility in production networks using employer-employee data matched with the universe of firm-to-firm transactions for the Dominican Republic: (1) workers move between buyers and suppliers almost twice as much as predicted by standard labour market characteristics, (2) movers between buyers and suppliers experience larger earnings increases than othe...
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作者:Brown, Zach Y.; Montero, Eduardo; Schmidt-Padilla, Carlos; Sviatschi, Maria Micaela
作者单位:University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Princeton University
摘要:How does gang competition affect extortion? Using detailed data on individual extortion payments to gangs and sales from a leading wholesale distributor of consumer goods and pharmaceuticals in El Salvador, we document evidence on the determinants of extortion payments and the effects of extortion on firms and consumers. We exploit a 2016 non-aggression pact between gangs to examine how collusion affects extortion in areas where gangs previously competed. While the pact led to a large reductio...
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作者:Bracha, Anat; Tang, Jenny
作者单位:Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要:Inflation expectations are key determinants of economic activity and are central to the current policy debate about whether inflation expectations will remain anchored in the face of recent pandemic-related increases in inflation. This article explores evidence of inattention by constructing two novel and direct measures of consumers' inattention, and documents greater attention when inflation is high. This relationship can explain a substantial portion of the flattening of the Phillips curve ...