-
作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.; Ghironi, Fabio; Melitz, Marc J.
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Boston College; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University
摘要：This paper builds a framework for the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations that incorporates the endogenous determination of the number of producers and products over the business cycle. Economic expansions induce higher entry rates by prospective entrants subject to sunk investment costs. The sluggish response of the number of producers generates a new and potentially important endogenous propagation mechanism for business cycle models. The return to investment determines household saving d...
-
作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
作者单位：William & Mary; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters. We document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information. The dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with i...
-
作者：Miller, Amalia R.; Tucker, Catherine E.
作者单位：University of Virginia; RAND Corporation; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Electronic medical records (EMRs) facilitate fast and accurate access to patient records, which could improve diagnosis and patient monitoring. Using a 12-year county-level panel, we find that a 10 percent increase in births that occur in hospitals with EMRs reduces neonatal mortality by 16 deaths per 100,000 live births. This is driven by a reduction of deaths from conditions requiring careful monitoring. We also find a strong decrease in mortality when we instrument for EMR adoption using va...
-
作者：Davis, Lucas W.; Kilian, Lutz
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：A direct consequence of restricting the price of a good for which secondary markets do not exist is that, in the presence of excess demand, the good will not be allocated to the buyers who value it the most. We demonstrate the empirical importance of this allocative cost for the U. S. residential market for natural gas, which was subject to price ceilings during 1954-89. Using a household-level, discrete-continuous model of natural gas demand, we estimate that the allocative cost in this marke...
-
作者：Budish, Eric
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This paper proposes a new mechanism for combinatorial assignment-for example, assigning schedules of courses to students-based on an approximation to competitive equilibrium from equal incomes (CEEI) in which incomes are unequal but arbitrarily close together. The main technical result is an existence theorem for approximate CEEI. The mechanism is approximately efficient, satisfies two new criteria of outcome fairness, and is strategyproof in large markets. Its performance is explored on real ...
-
作者：Carlson, Mark; Mitchener, Kris James; Richardson, Gary
作者单位：Santa Clara University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：Scholars differ on whether central bank intervention mitigates banking panics. In April 1929, a fruit fly infestation in Florida forced the U.S. government to quarantine fruit shipments from the state and destroy infested groves. In July, depositors panicked in Tampa and surrounding cities. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta rushed currency to member banks beset by runs. We show that this intervention arrested the panic and estimate that bank failures would have been twice as high without the...
-
作者：Cochrane, John H.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：The new-Keynesian, Taylor rule theory of inflation determination relies on explosive dynamics. By raising interest rates in response to inflation, the Fed induces ever-larger inflation, unless inflation jumps to one particular value on each date. However, economics does not rule out explosive inflation, so inflation remains indeterminate. Attempts to fix this problem assume that the government will choose to blow up the economy if alternative equilibria emerge, by following policies we usually...
-
作者：Echenique, Federico; Lee, Sangmok; Shum, Matthew
作者单位：California Institute of Technology
摘要：We introduce a measure of the severity of violations of the revealed preference axioms, the money pump index (MPI). The MPI is the amount of money one can extract from a consumer who violates the axioms. It is also a statistical test for the hypothesis that a consumer is rational when behavior is observed with error. We present an application using a panel data set of food expenditures. The data exhibit many violations of the axioms. Mostly, the MPI for these violations is small. The MPI indic...
-
作者：Gavazza, Alessandro
作者单位：New York University
摘要：I develop a model of costly capital reallocation to understand how leasing reduces trading frictions. Leased assets trade more frequently and produce more output than owned assets because (1) high-volatility firms are more likely to lease than low-volatility firms and (2) firms shed leased asssets faster than owned assets amid productivity shocks because of lower transaction costs. Commercial aircraft data show that leased aircraft have holding durations 38 percent shorter and fly 6.5 percent ...
-
作者：Krishna, Vijay; Morgan, John
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We study a model in which voters choose between two candidates on the basis of both ideology and competence. While the ideology of the candidates is commonly known, voters are imperfectly informed about competence. Voter preferences, however, are such that ideology alone determines voting. When voting is compulsory, the candidate of the majority ideology prevails, and this may not be optimal from a social perspective. However, when voting is voluntary and costly, we show that turnout adjusts e...
