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作者：Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
作者单位：Auckland University of Technology; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untrea...
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作者：Barahona, Nano; Otero, Cristobal; Otero, Sebastian
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We study a regulation in Chile that mandates warning labels on products whose sugar or caloric concentration exceeds certain thresholds. We show that consumers substitute from labeled to unlabeled products-a pattern mostly driven by products that consumers mistakenly believe to be healthy. On the supply side, we find substantial reformulation of products and bunching at the thresholds. We develop and estimate an equilibrium model of demand for food and firms' pricing and nutritional choices. W...
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作者：Francois, Patrick; Trebbi, Francesco; Xiao, Kairong
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：This paper theoretically and empirically investigates factional arrangements within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the governing political party of the People's Republic of China. Using detailed biographical information of political elites in the Central Committee and provincial governments, we present a set of new empirical regularities within the CCP, including systematic patterns of cross-factional balancing at different levels of the political hierarchy and substantial faction premia i...
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作者：Bresnahan, Tim
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Newey, Whitney K.; Santos, Andres
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Shape restrictions have played a central role in economics as both testable implications of theory and sufficient conditions for obtaining informative counterfactual predictions. In this paper, we provide a general procedure for inference under shape restrictions in identified and partially identified models defined by conditional moment restrictions. Our test statistics and proposed inference methods are based on the minimum of the generalized method of moments (GMM) objective function with a...
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作者：Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou; Reed, Tristan
作者单位：Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; The World Bank
摘要：What is the pathway to development in a world marked by rising economic nationalism and less international integration? This paper answers this question within a framework that emphasizes the role of demand-side constraints on national development, which is identified with sustained poverty reduction. In this framework, development is linked to the adoption of an increasing returns to scale technology by imperfectly competitive firms that need to pay the fixed setup cost of switching to that t...
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作者：Shen, Dennis; Ding, Peng; Sekhon, Jasjeet; Yu, Bin
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Yale University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：One dominant approach to evaluate the causal effect of a treatment is through panel data analysis, whereby the behaviors of multiple units are observed over time. The information across time and units motivates two general approaches: (i) horizontal regression (i.e., unconfoundedness), which exploits time series patterns, and (ii) vertical regression (e.g., synthetic controls), which exploits cross-sectional patterns. Conventional wisdom often considers the two approaches to be different. We e...
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作者：Enikolopov, Ruben; Makarin, Alexey; Petrova, Maria
作者单位：New Economic School
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作者：Lin, Zhexiao; Ding, Peng; Han, Fang
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：Nearest neighbor (NN) matching is widely used in observational studies for causal effects. Abadie and Imbens (2006) provided the first large-sample analysis of NN matching. Their theory focuses on the case with the number of NNs, M fixed. We reveal something new out of their study and show that once allowing M to diverge with the sample size an intrinsic statistic in their analysis constitutes a consistent estimator of the density ratio with regard to covariates across the treated and control ...
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作者：Gunsilius, F. F.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：The method of synthetic controls is a fundamental tool for evaluating causal effects of policy changes in settings with observational data. In many settings where it is applicable, researchers want to identify causal effects of policy changes on a treated unit at an aggregate level while having access to data at a finer granularity. This article proposes an extension of the synthetic controls estimator that takes advantage of this additional structure and provides nonparametric estimates of th...
