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作者：Saffie, Felipe; Varela, Liliana; Yi, Kei-Mu
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：We study empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation. Using the universe of firms in Hungary, we show that removing capital controls lowers firms' cost of capital and increases household consumption, with the latter playing a dominant role. The consumption channel leads to reallocation of resources toward high expenditure elasticity activities-such as services-promoting both the expansion of incumbents and firm entry. A multi-sector heterog...
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作者：Boissay, F.; Collard, F.; Gali, J.; Manea, C.
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：What are the channels through which monetary policy affects financial stability? Can (and should) central banks prevent financial crises by deviating from price stability? To what extent may monetary policy itself unintentionally breed financial vulnerabilities? We answer these questions using a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and endogenous financial crises due to adverse selection and moral hazard in credit markets. Our findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the...
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作者：Blandhol, Christine; Bonney, John; Mogstad, Magne; Torgovitsky, Alexander
作者单位：Princeton University; Stanford University; University of Chicago; Statistics Norway; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Linear instrumental variable estimators, such as two-stage least squares (TSLS), are commonly interpreted as estimating non-negatively weighted averages of causal effects, referred to as local average treatment effects (LATEs). We examine whether the LATE interpretation actually applies to the types of TSLS specifications that are used in practice. We show that if the specification includes covariates-which most empirical work does-then the LATE interpretation does not apply in general. Instea...
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作者：Frakes, Michael; Gruber, Jonathan
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We assess the relationship between the racial diversity of medical providers and racial health disparities in the use of preventive care and in patient outcomes. We use unique data from the Military Health System, where we observe providers as patients so that we can identify their race, and where moves across bases change exposure to provider race in a plausibly exogenous fashion. We consider patients with four chronic, deadly, but manageable illnesses, where the relationship with the provide...
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作者：Echenique, Federico; Tserenjigmid, Gerelt
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We revisit the recent revealed preference analysis of sophisticated quasi-hyperbolic consumers by Blow et al. [(2021), Non-parametric Analysis of Time-Inconsistent Preferences, The Review of Economic Studies, 88, 2687-2734] (BBC). We show that BBC's revealed preference test is too lax. There are non-rationalizable data that would pass their test. A basic problem with their test is that it requires finding a certain endogenous elasticity, without regard to the rationalizing utility. Their appro...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Conlon, John; Gennaioli, Nicola; Kwon, Spencer; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Carnegie Mellon University; Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Brown University; Harvard University
摘要：For standard statistical problems, we provide new evidence documenting (1) multimodality and (2) instability in probability estimates, including from irrelevant changes in problem description. The evidence motivates a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending to its salient features while neglecting other, potentially more relevant, ones. Only the statistics associated with salient features are used. The model unifies biases in judgments about i.i.d....
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Ilut, Cosmin; Saijo, Hikaru
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Duke University; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We show that the formalization of representativeness (Kahneman and Tversky, 1972, Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454) developed by Gennaioli and Shleifer (2010, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125, 1399-1433) features an intrinsic connection between uncertainty and overreaction. In the time series domain, we develop this connection in a smooth version of diagnostic expectations (DE), where overreaction varies smoothly with uncertainty. Intuitively, under smoothness, lower uncertainty leaves ...
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作者：Mastrorocco, Nicola; Teso, Edoardo
作者单位：University of Bologna; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bocconi University; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate how technologies that reduce the costs of monitoring by central authorities have shaped the historical transition from small patrimonial states to large bureaucratic organizations. Our analysis is based on a novel dataset that traces changes in the organizational structure and geographic presence of the U.S. federal government over the 19th century. To identify causal effects, we develop a new identification strategy that exploits the expansion of the railroad network as a sourc...
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作者：Bertolotti, Fabio
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：I examine the impact of patent term on R&D and innovation in the presence of policy anticipation, common in real-world settings. Using a difference-in-difference design, I exploit quasi-experimental variation in US patent term across technological fields due to the ratification of TRIPs agreements in 1995. Despite a general increase in average patent term, in most fields innovators faced a considerable probability of patent term reduction for future innovations. Three key findings emerge: (1) ...
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作者：Milgrom, Paul; Watt, Mitchell
作者单位：Stanford University; Monash University
摘要：We introduce markup equilibrium-an extension of Walrasian equilibrium in which consumers pay a fixed percentage markup over producer prices. In quasilinear markets, markup equilibria exist despite nonconvexities. They are resource-feasible and envy-free, incur no budget deficit, and require little more communication and computation than ordinary Walrasian equilibrium. The associated markup mechanism is asymptotically incentive-compatible. We also introduce a Bound-Form First Welfare Theorem, w...
