Monetary Policy and Endogenous Financial Crises

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Boissay, F.; Collard, F.; Gali, J.; Manea, C.
• 署名单位: Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag042
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: US BUSINESS CYCLES; macroeconomic model; credit; banking; PRODUCTIVITY; liquidity; frictions; booms; RISK; misallocation

摘要

What are the channels through which monetary policy affects financial stability? Can (and should) central banks prevent financial crises by deviating from price stability? To what extent may monetary policy itself unintentionally breed financial vulnerabilities? We answer these questions using a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and endogenous financial crises due to adverse selection and moral hazard in credit markets. Our findings are threefold. First, monetary policy affects the probability of a crisis both in the short run (via aggregate demand) and in the medium run (via capital accumulation). Second, the central bank can reduce the incidence of crises in the medium run by tolerating higher inflation volatility in the short run. Third, prolonged periods of loose monetary policy followed by a sharp tightening can lead to financial crises.