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作者：Wu, Yunhan; Dharamshi, Ameer; Wakefield, Jon
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：Education is a key driver of social and economic mobility, yet disparities in attainment persist, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Existing indicators, such as mean years of schooling for adults aged 25 and older (MYS25) and expected years of schooling (EYS), offer a snapshot of an educational system, but lack either cohort-specific or temporal granularity. To address these limitations, we introduce the ultimate years of schooling (UYS)-a birth cohort-based metric targe...
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作者：Chatha, Prayag; Bu, Fan; Regier, Jeffrey; Snitkin, Evan; Zelner, Jon
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Stochastic infectious disease models capture uncertainty in public health outcomes and have become increasingly popular in epidemiological practice. However, it is hard to calibrate realistic stochastic models to data due to the challenges of likelihood-based inference of unknown parameters. Stochastic epidemic models are nonlinear dynamical systems that may feature massive latent state spaces, resulting in computationally intractable likelihood densities. We develop an approach to calibrating...
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作者：Gao, Zhe; Zhu, Jin; Hu, Yue; Pan, Wenliang; Wang, Xueqin
作者单位：Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Science & Technology of China, CAS; University of Birmingham; Yale University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Academy of Mathematics & System Sciences, CAS
摘要：The corpus callosum, the largest white matter structure in the brain, plays a critical role in interhemispheric communication. Variations in its morphology are associated with various neurological and psychological conditions, making it a key focus in neurogenetics. Age is known to influence the structure and morphology of the corpus callosum significantly, complicating the identification of specific genetic factors that contribute to its shape and size. We propose a conditional strong indepen...
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作者：Qiu, Jiaming; Dai, Xiongtao; Zhu, Zhengyuan; Yin, Shuiqing
作者单位：Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Iowa State University; Beijing Normal University
摘要：Obtaining precise erosion measurements requires costly fieldwork, making it infeasible to directly survey large domains such as a province or river basin. To extend fieldwork results across such extensive domains, we propose a novel spatial prediction method that treats local erosion distributions as objects in the Wasserstein space. These distributions are mapped into square-integrable trajectories and represented via basis expansion, forming a multivariate random field that captures spatial ...
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作者：Cai, Zexi; Zeng, Donglin; Marder, Karen S.; Honig, Lawrence S.; Wang, Yuanjia
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Columbia University
摘要：Disease progression prediction based on patients' evolving health information is challenging when true disease states are unknown due to diagnostic capabilities or high costs. For example, the absence of gold-standard neurological diagnoses hinders distinguishing Alzheimer's disease (AD) from related conditions such as AD-related dementias (ADRDs), including Lewy body dementia (LBD). Combining temporally dependent surrogate labels and health markers may improve disease prediction. However, exi...
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作者：Cook, A. M.; Li, Dayi; Eadie, Gwendolyn M.; Stenning, David C.; Scholz, Paul; Bingham, Derek; Craiu, Radu; Gaensler, B. M.; Masui, Kiyoshi W.; Pleunis, Ziggy; Herrera-Martin, Antonio; Joseph, Ronniy C.; Pandhi, Ayush; Pearlman, Aaron B.; Prochaska, J. Xavier
作者单位：McGill University; University of Toronto; University of Toronto; Simon Fraser University; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Amsterdam
摘要：This paper introduces an approach to analyze nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) observed with noise, focusing on previously unstudied second-order characteristics of the noisy process. Utilizing a hierarchical Bayesian model with noisy data, we estimate hyperparameters governing a physically motivated NHPP intensity. Simulation studies demonstrate the reliability of this methodology in accurately estimating hyperparameters. Leveraging the posterior distribution, we then infer the probabil...
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作者：Dong, Zheng; Mateu, Jorge; Xie, Yao
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：Self-exciting point processes are widely used to model the contagious effects of crime events living within continuous geographic space, using their occurrence time and locations. However, in urban environments most events are naturally constrained within the city's street network structure, and the contagious effects of crime are governed by such a network geography. Meanwhile, the complex distribution of urban infrastructures also plays an important role in shaping crime patterns across spac...
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作者：Iacopini, Matteo; Krisztin, Tamas; Piribauer, Philipp
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
摘要：This study introduces a novel Markov-switching spatial autoregressive (MS-SAR) model to analyse dynamic cross-price interdependencies within the three-digit subcomponents of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 15 European Union countries. By allowing the spatial weight matrix and network strength to evolve over time, our model captures the complex, time-varying nature of economic interdependencies that traditional models often overlook. Our results reveal marked cross-country differences in the...
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作者：Krennmair, Patrick; Wurz, Nora; Schmid, Timo; Tzavidis, Nikos
作者单位：Free University of Berlin; Otto Friedrich University Bamberg; University of Southampton; University of Southampton
摘要：Use of standard random forests may not guarantee reliable small area estimates unless a rich source of predictors explains the between-area heterogeneity. We propose mixed effects random forests with area random effects for small area estimation of general parameters. A new fitting algorithm with an embedded bootstrap-bias correction for the random forest residual variance is presented. Point estimators of small area parameters are constructed using a smearing estimator of the area-specific di...
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作者：Pan, Tianyu; Shi, Yiyao; Zhang, Xiang; Shen, Weining; Ye, Ting
作者单位：Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Irvine; CSL; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：Gene therapies aim to address the root causes of diseases, particularly those stemming from rare genetic defects that can be life-threatening or severely debilitating. Although an increasing number of gene therapies have received regulatory approvals in recent years, understanding their long-term efficacy in trials with limited follow-up time remains challenging. To address this question, we propose a novel Bayesian framework to selectively integrate relevant external data with internal trial ...
