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作者：Greenwald, Daniel l.; Krainer, John; Paul, Pascal
作者单位：New York University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Aggregate U.S. bank lending to firms expanded following the outbreak of COVID-19. Using loan-level supervisory data, we show that this expansion was driven by draws on credit lines by large firms. Banks that experienced larger credit line drawdowns restricted term lending more, crowding out credit to smaller firms, which reacted by reducing investment. A structural model calibrated to match our empirical results shows that while credit lines increase total bank credit in bad times, they redist...
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作者：Kremens, Lukas; Martin, Ian W. R.; Varela, Liliana
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two-year horizon, both in and out of sample. Exchange rate expectations are also interpretable, in the sense that three macro-finance variables-the risk-neutral covariance between the exchange rate and equity market, the real exchange rate, and the current account relative to GDP-explain most of their variation. There is no secret sauce, however, in ex...
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作者：Derrien, Francois; Kruger, Philipp; Landier, Augustin; Yao, Tianhao
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; University of Geneva; European Corporate Governance Institute; Singapore Management University
摘要：We investigate the expected consequences of negative environmental, social, and governance (ESG) news on firms' future profits. After learning about negative ESG news, analysts significantly downgrade their forecasts at short and longer horizons. Negative ESG news affects forecasts more strongly at longer horizons than other types of negative corporate news. The negative revisions of earnings forecasts following negative ESG news largely reflect expectations of lower future sales, rather than ...
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作者：Parise, Gianpaolo; Rubin, Mirco
作者单位：Tilburg University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universite Catholique de Lille; EDHEC Business School
摘要：This paper establishes that mutual funds strategically time their trades in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) stocks around disclosure dates to inflate their sustainability ratings. This claim is supported by three empirical findings. First, we show that funds' ESG betas increase shortly before disclosure and decrease shortly afterwards. Second, we document that post-disclosure fund returns are higher but have lower ESG exposure than disclosed portfolios. Third, we provide evidence t...
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作者：Stein, Jeremy C.; Wallen, Jonathan
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We study supply-and-demand effects in the U.S. Treasury bill market by comparing the returns on T-bills to the policy rate on the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. We develop and test a simple model where the RRP-bill spread is policed both by heterogeneously elastic money funds and by corporate treasurers who derive collateral benefits from holding T-bills. In response to shifts in T-bill supply, money funds act as front-line arbitrageurs. However, when T-bills become extre...
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作者：Borgschulte, Mark; Guenzel, Marius; Liu, Canyao; Malmendier, Ulrike
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We assess the long-term effects of managerial stress on aging and mortality. Using a difference-in-differences design, we apply neural network-based machine-learning techniques to CEOs' facial images and show that exposure to industry distress shocks during the Great Recession produces visible signs of aging. We estimate a one-year increase in apparent age. Moreover, using data on CEOs since the mid-1970s, we estimate a 1.1-year decrease in life expectancy after an industry distress shock, but...
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作者：Barkai, Simcha; Panageas, Stavros
作者单位：Boston College; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Young firms' contribution to aggregate employment has been underwhelming. We show that a similar trend is not apparent, however, in their contribution to aggregate sales or stock market capitalization, implying that these firms have exhibited a high average-to-marginal revenue product of labor. We study the implications of a gradual shift in the average-to-marginal revenue product of labor within a model of dynamic firm heterogeneity. We show that this shift provides (i) a unified explanation ...
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作者：Falato, Antonio; Scharfstein, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after going public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk improves short-term performance at the expense of long-term performance. We argue that the increase in risk stems from pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings once the bank is publicly traded. After going public, banks owned by investors...
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作者：Buffa, Andrea M.; Liu, Qing; White, Lucy
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; City University of Hong Kong; Boston University
摘要：Real-world contracts are typically private, observed only by their direct signatories, so agents working together are vulnerable to the principal opportunistically reducing other agents' incentives. The principal can mitigate this commitment problem by giving the most skilled agent a budget and delegating authority to write other agents' contracts. This endogenous hierarchy, never optimal with public contracts, raises effort, output, and compensation but allows rent extraction. The principal p...
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作者：De Jong, Abe; Kooijmans, Tim; Koudijs, Peter
作者单位：University of Groningen; National Taiwan University; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
摘要：Can banks' reputational concerns improve the quality of opaque, off-balance sheet securities, such as mortgage-backed securities? We study this question in a uniquely parsimonious setting. In the 1760s, Dutch banking partnerships securitized West-Indian plantation mortgages that were risky and opaque. High-reputation banks originated better mortgages and issued securities that, on average, retained 17.5% more of their value during a market collapse. Reputational effects are attenuated when the...
