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作者：Jimenez, Gabriel; Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Peydro, Jose-luis; Richter, Bjorn
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Luiss Guido Carli University; Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：We show that a U-shaped monetary rate path increases banking crisis risk, via credit and asset price cycles, analyzing 17 countries over 150 years. Rate hikes (raw or instrumented) increase crisis risk, but only if preceded by prolonged cuts. These patterns are unique to banking crises, unlike noncrisis recessions. Regarding the mechanism, prolonged cuts raise the likelihood of large credit and asset price booms, consistent with higher credit supply and risk-taking. Subsequent hikes strongly r...
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作者：Ghosh, Pulak; Vallee, Boris; Zeng, Yao
摘要：Borrowers' use of cashless payments improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment usage complements other signals of borrower quality. We rationalize these empirical findings using a framework in which borrowers signal their lower likelihood of diverting cash flows through payment technology choice, and screening ...
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作者：Coimbra, Nuno; Gomes, Francisco; Michaelides, Alexander; Shen, Jialu
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London Business School; Imperial College London; Fudan University
摘要：We show that incorporating defined benefit pension funds in an incomplete markets asset pricing model improves its ability to match the historical equity premium and riskless rate and has important risk-sharing implications. We document the importance of the pension fund's size and asset demands, and a new risk channel arising from fluctuations in the fund's returns. We use our calibrated model to study the implications of a shift to an economy with defined contribution plans. The new steady s...
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作者：Michaud, Pierre-Carl; St-Amour, Pascal
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Annuities, long-term care insurance, and reverse mortgages remain puzzlingly unpopular to manage post-retirement longevity, health, and housing price risks. We use a flexible life-cycle model structurally estimated with a unique stated-preference survey experiment of Canadian households to understand why. Key factors include high risk aversion, concern over long-run risks, strong discounting of valuation in disability states, imperfect housing substitutability, and bequest motives. The remaini...
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作者：Starks, Laura T.; Venkat, Parth; Zhu, Qifei
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC); National University of Singapore
摘要：We find that long-term institutional investors tilt their portfolios toward firms with better Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) profiles, in the cross sections of both institutional investor portfolios and the ownership of firms. We test whether several theoretically motivated mechanisms can explain this relationship. Our results that long-term investors exhibit patience with firms around poor earnings announcements, but quickly sell portfolio firms after negative ES incidents, suppo...
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作者：Ewens, Michael; Malenko, Nadya
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston College
摘要：We explore the dynamics of venture capital (VC)-backed startup boards using novel data on director entry, exit, and characteristics. At formation, a typical board is entrepreneur-controlled. Independent directors join the median board after the second financing and hold a tie-breaking vote. Their presence is particularly likely when potential VC-entrepreneur conflicts are larger. At later stages, control switches to VCs and independent director characteristics change. These patterns align with...
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作者：Ben-David, Itzhak; Bhattacharya, Utpal; Huang, Ruidi; Jacobsen, Stacey
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Southern Methodist University
摘要：Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) computed around acquisition announcements are widely considered to be market-based assessments of expected value creation. We show, however, that announcement returns do not correlate with commonly used and new measures of ex post outcomes. A simple characteristics-based model using standard information known at the announcement date can predict these outcomes reasonably well, yet CAR even fails to capture the predictions from this model. Evidence suggests th...
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作者：Oh, Sangmin S.; Sen, Ishita; Tenekedjieva, Ana-Maria
作者单位：Columbia University; Harvard University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：Homeowners insurance is central to managing the rising losses from climate-related disasters. We show that insurance premiums are subject to starkly different regulations across states, creating persistent cross-subsidies and price distortions. We employ states' regulatory rules in an instrumental variable estimation and a border discontinuity design to show insurers do not adjust rates in highly regulated states and compensate by raising rates in less regulated states. Rates and risks diverge...
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作者：Di Maggio, Marco; Kalda, Ankit; Yao, Vincent
作者单位：Imperial College London; Indiana University System; IU Kelley School of Business; Indiana University Bloomington; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：We exploit an episode of plausibly random debt discharge due to the loss of paperwork for thousands of defaulted borrowers to examine the effects of private student debt relief on borrower outcomes. We find that borrowers who receive debt relief (treated) experience declines in debt balances and delinquency rates on other accounts, and increases in mobility and income relative to those who bear the costs of default like wage garnishment and collections (control). Borrowers in both groups contr...
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作者：Gala, Vito D.; Gomes, Joao F.; Liu, Tong
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Pennsylvania; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We propose a new method to estimate the marginal value of capital under minimal assumptions. By combining asset prices with fundamentals, our method provides a quasi-model-free marginal q together with a simple correction for measurement error in (average) Tobin's Q using linear regressions. Marginal q yields plausible and robust estimates of adjustment costs and investment sensitivities to fundamentals. The widening gap between marginal q and Tobin's Q is driven primarily by market power and ...
