-
作者：Li, Zigang; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Renxuan, Wang
作者单位：University of Toronto; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; China Europe International Business School
摘要：Professional house price forecast data are consistent with a rational model where agents must learn about the parameters of the house price growth process and the underlying state of the housing market. Slow learning about the long-run mean generates overreaction to forecast revisions and a modest response of forecasts to lagged realizations. Heterogeneity in signals and priors about the long-run mean helps the model account for cross-sectional dispersion in forecasts. Introducing behavioral f...
-
作者：Aiello, Darren; Garmaise, Mark; Nadauld, Taylor
作者单位：Brigham Young University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study intermediation in the housing market. Using data from an online platform utilized by real estate agents to generate leads, we identify exogenous intermediary attention arising from the quasi-randomized ordering of potential listings. Greater intermediary attention leads to an increased probability of listing with an agent and selling quickly, and a higher transaction price. The listing and transaction probabilities of neighboring properties decrease in intermediary attention. These re...
-
作者：He, Zhiguo; Song, Zhaogang
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：Measured as yield spreads against Treasury securities and AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium of newly issued agency MBS averages more than half of the long-term Treasury convenience premium. The agency MBS convenience premium and issuance amount vary negatively with mortgage rate, consistent with a prepayment-driven channel. Placing agencies into conservatorship in 2008 and introducing liquidity regulations in 2013 significantly affected MBS convenience premium, consistent with gover...
-
作者：Chang, Jeffery (jinfan); Wang, Yuheng; Xiong, Wei
作者单位：The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Central University of Finance & Economics; Princeton University
摘要：During the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022), Chinese cities witnessed a paradox: residential land and new house prices surged while transaction volumes plummeted. We attribute this to local governments' active price management through supply controls, land acquisitions by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), and limits on new home sales permits. Cities more dependent on land sales and land-backed debt before the pandemic experienced greater price increases and price-volume divergence, wit...
