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作者：Noufaily, Angela; Farrington, Paddy; Garthwaite, Paul; Enki, Doyo Gragn; Andrews, Nick; Charlett, Andre
作者单位：University of Warwick
摘要：Many statistical surveillance systems for the timely detection of outbreaks of infectious disease operate on laboratory data. Such data typically incur reporting delays between the time at which a specimen is collected for diagnostic purposes, and the time at which the results of the laboratory analysis become available. Statistical surveillance systems currently in use usually make some ad hoc adjustment for such delays, or use counts by time of report. We propose a new statistical approach t...
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作者：Yu, Zhe; Prado, Raquel; Quinlan, Erin Burke; Cramer, Steven C.; Ombao, Hernando
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：Stroke is a disturbance in blood supply to the brain resulting in the loss of brain functions, particularly motor function. A study was conducted by the UCI Neurorehabilitation Lab to investigate the impact of stroke on motor-related brain regions. Functional MRI (fMRI) data were collected from stroke patients and healthy controls while the subjects performed a simple motor task. In addition to affecting local neuronal activation strength, stroke might also alter communications (i.e., connecti...
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作者：Haneuse, Sebastien; Rivera, Claudia
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
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作者：Pham, Lisa M.; Carvalho, Luis; Schaus, Scott; Kolaczyk, Eric D.
作者单位：Boston University; Boston University
摘要：Cellular response to a perturbation is the result of a dynamic system of biological variables linked in a complex network. A major challenge in drug and disease studies is identifying the key factors of a biological network that are essential in determining the cell's fate. Here, our goal is the identification of perturbed pathways from high-throughput gene expression data. We develop a three-level hierarchical model, where (i) the first level captures the relationship between gene expression ...
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作者：Titsias, Michalis K.; Holmes, Christopher C.; Yau, Christopher
作者单位：Athens University of Economics & Business; University of Oxford; Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics; University of Oxford; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC)
摘要：Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state sequence, found via the Viterbi algorithm, or the sequence of most probable marginals using the forward-backward algorithm. In this article, we expand the amount of information we could obtain from the posterior distribution of an HMM by introducing linear-t...
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作者：Airoldi, Edoardo M.
作者单位：Harvard University
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作者：Haerdle, Wolfgang Karl; Cabrera, Brenda Lopez; Okhrin, Ostap; Wang, Weining
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin; Technische Universitat Dresden
摘要：On the temperature derivative market, modeling temperature volatility is an important issue for pricing and hedging. To apply the pricing tools of financial mathematics, one needs to isolate a Gaussian risk factor. A conventional model for temperature dynamics is a stochastic model with seasonality and intertemporal autocorrelation. Empirical work based on seasonality and autocorrelation correction reveals that the obtained residuals are heteroscedastic with a periodic pattern. The object of t...
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作者：Rosenblum, Michael
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
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作者：Jentsch, Carsten; Kirch, Claudia
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Otto von Guericke University
摘要：This article is motivated by several articles that propose statistical inference where the independence of wavelet coefficients for both short- as well as long-range dependent time series is assumed. We focus on the sample variance and investigate the influence of the dependence between wavelet coefficients and this statistic. To this end, we derive asymptotic distributional properties of the sample variance for a time series that is synthesized, ignoring some or all dependence between wavelet...
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作者：Liu, Wei; Zhang, Zhiwei; Schroeder, R. Jason; Ho, Martin; Zhang, Bo; Long, Cynthia; Zhang, Hui; Irony, Telba Z.
作者单位：US Food & Drug Administration (FDA)
摘要：In some therapeutic areas, treatment evaluation is frequently complicated by a possible placebo effect (i.e., the psychobiological effect of a patient's knowledge or belief of being treated). When a substantial placebo effect is likely to exist, it is important to distinguish the treatment and placebo effects in quantifying the clinical benefit of a new treatment. These causal effects can be formally defined in a joint causal model that includes treatment (e.g., new vs. placebo) and treatmenta...
