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作者：Oates, Chris J.; Cockayne, Jon; Aykroyd, Robert G.; Girolami, Mark
作者单位：Newcastle University - UK; Alan Turing Institute; University of Warwick; University of Leeds; Imperial College London
摘要：The use of high-power industrial equipment, such as large-scale mixing equipment or a hydrocyclone for separation of particles in liquid suspension, demands careful monitoring to ensure correct operation. The fundamental task of state-estimation for the liquid suspension can be posed as a time-evolving inverse problem and solved with Bayesian statistical methods. In this article, we extend Bayesian methods to incorporate statistical models for the error that is incurred in the numerical soluti...
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作者：Xie, Yimeng; Xu, Li; Li, Jie; Deng, Xinwei; Hong, Yili; Kolivras, Korine; Gaines, David N.
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：Lyme disease is an infectious disease, that is, caused by a bacterium called Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. In the United States, Lyme disease is one of the most common infectious diseases. The major endemic areas of the disease are New England, Mid-Atlantic, East-North Central, South Atlantic, and West North-Central. Virginia is on the front-line of the disease's diffusion from the northeast to the south. One of the research objectives for the infectious disease community is to identify ...
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作者：Jiang, Fei; Tian, Lu; Fu, Haoda; Hasegawa, Takahiro; Wei, L. J.
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Stanford University; Eli Lilly; Shionogi & Company Limited; Harvard University
摘要：In comparing two treatments via a randomized clinical trial, the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) technique is often utilized to estimate an overall treatment effect. The ANCOVA is generally perceived as a more efficient procedure than its simple two sample estimation counterpart. Unfortunately, when the ANCOVA model is nonlinear, the resulting estimator is generally not consistent. Recently, various nonparametric alternatives to the ANCOVA, such as the augmentation methods, have been proposed ...
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作者：Ogburn, Elizabeth L.; Shpitser, Ilya; Tchetgen, Eric J. Tchetgen
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins University; University of Pennsylvania
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作者：Saul, Bradley C.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Mallin, Michael A.
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Wilmington
摘要：The United States Environmental Protection Agency considers nutrient pollution in stream ecosystems one of the United States' most pressing environmental challenges. But limited independent replicates, lack of experimental randomization, and space- and time-varying confounding handicap causal inference on effects of nutrient pollution. In this article, the causal g-methods are extended to allow for exposures to vary in time and space in order to assess the effects of nutrient pollution on chlo...
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作者：Salter, James M.; Williamson, Daniel B.; Scinocca, John; Kharin, Viatcheslav
作者单位：University of Exeter; Environment & Climate Change Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis (CCCma)
摘要：The calibration of complex computer codes using uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is a rich area of statistical methodological development. When applying these techniques to simulators with spatial output, it is now standard to use principal component decomposition to reduce the dimensions of the outputs in order to allow Gaussian process emulators to predict the output for calibration. We introduce the terminal case, in which the model cannot reproduce observations to within model discr...
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作者：Cadonna, Annalisa; Kottas, Athanasios; Prado, Raquel
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We develop a novel Bayesian modeling approach to spectral density estimation for multiple time series. The log-periodogram distribution for each series is modeled as a mixture of Gaussian distributions with frequency-dependent weights and mean functions. The implied model for the log-spectral density is a mixture of linear mean functions with frequency-dependent weights. The mixture weights are built through successive differences of a logit-normal distribution function with frequency-dependen...
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作者：Hui, Francis K. C.; You, C.; Shang, H. L.; Mueller, Samuel
作者单位：Australian National University; University of Nottingham Ningbo China; Australian National University; University of Sydney
摘要：Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling nonlinear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models (GAMs) where splines (say) are used to approximate nonlinear functional components in conjunction with a quadratic penalty to control for overfitting. Estimation and inference are then generally performed based on the penalized likelihood, or under a mixed model framework. The penalized likelihood framework is fast but pot...
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作者：Tang, Xueying; Yang, Yang; Yu, Hong-Jie; Liao, Qiao-Hong; Bliznyuk, Nikolay
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Chinese Center for Disease Control & Prevention; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Many surveillance systems of infectious diseases are syndrome-based, capturing patients by clinical manifestation. Only a fraction of patients, mostly severe cases, undergo laboratory validation to identify the underlying pathogen. Motivated by the need to understand transmission dynamics and associate risk factors of enteroviruses causing the hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, we developed a Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling framework for surveillance data of infectious diseases w...
