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作者：Park, Junhyung; Schoenberg, Frederic Paik; Bertozzi, Andrea L.; Brantingham, P. Jeffrey
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Reported gang-related violent crimes in Los Angeles, California, from 1/1/14 to 12/31/17 are modeled using spatial-temporal marked Hawkes point processes with covariates. We propose an algorithm to estimate the spatial-temporally varying background rate nonparametrically as a function of demographic covariates. Kernel smoothing and generalized additive models are used in an attempt to model the background rate as closely as possible in an effort to differentiate inhomogeneity in the background...
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作者：Abadie, Alberto; Cattaneo, Matias D.
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作者：Zhou, Jincheng; Hodges, James S.; Chu, Haitao
作者单位：Amgen; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：Noncompliance with assigned treatments is a common challenge in analyzing and interpreting randomized clinical trials (RCTs). One way to handle noncompliance is to estimate the complier-average causal effect (CACE), the intervention's efficacy in the subpopulation that complies with assigned treatment. In a two-step meta-analysis, one could first estimate CACE for each study, then combine them to estimate the population-averaged CACE. However, when some trials do not report noncompliance data,...
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作者：Qiu, Hongxiang; Carone, Marco; Sadikova, Ekaterina; Petukhova, Maria; Kessler, Ronald C.; Luedtke, Alex
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作者：Ben-Michael, Eli; Feller, Avi; Rothstein, Jesse
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit in panel data settings. The synthetic control is a weighted average of control units that balances the treated unit's pretreatment outcomes and other covariates as closely as possible. A critical feature of the original proposal is to use SCM only when the fit on pretreatment outcomes is excellent. We propose Augmented SCM as an extension of SCM to settings where such pretreatment...
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作者：Li, Huazhang; Wang, Yaotian; Yan, Guofen; Sun, Yinge; Tanabe, Seiji; Liu, Chang-Chia; Quigg, Mark S.; Zhang, Tingting
作者单位：University of Virginia; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Virginia; University of Virginia; University of Virginia; University of Virginia
摘要：The human brain is a directional network system of brain regions involving directional connectivity. Seizures are a directional network phenomenon as abnormal neuronal activities start from a seizure onset zone (SOZ) and propagate to otherwise healthy regions. To localize the SOZ of an epileptic patient, clinicians use intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) to record the patient's intracranial brain activity in many small regions. iEEG data are high-dimensional multivariate time series. We...
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作者：Cattaneo, Matias D.; Keele, Luke; Titiunik, Rocio; Vazquez-Bare, Gonzalo
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Pennsylvania; Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：In nonexperimental settings, the regression discontinuity (RD) design is one of the most credible identification strategies for program evaluation and causal inference. However, RD treatment effect estimands are necessarily local, making statistical methods for the extrapolation of these effects a key area for development. We introduce a new method for extrapolation of RD effects that relies on the presence of multiple cutoffs, and is therefore design-based. Our approach employs an easy-to-int...
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作者：Wu, Jason; Ding, Peng
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：The Fisher randomization test (FRT) is appropriate for any test statistic, under a sharp null hypothesis that can recover all missing potential outcomes. However, it is often sought after to test a weak null hypothesis that the treatment does not affect the units on average. To use the FRT for a weak null hypothesis, we must address two issues. First, we need to impute the missing potential outcomes although the weak null hypothesis cannot determine all of them. Second, we need to choose a pro...
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作者：Bai, Jushan; Ng, Serena
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article proposes an imputation procedure that uses the factors estimated from a tall block along with the re-rotated loadings estimated from a wide block to impute missing values in a panel of data. Assuming that a strong factor structure holds for the full panel of data and its sub-blocks, it is shown that the common component can be consistently estimated at four different rates of convergence without requiring regularization or iteration. An asymptotic analysis of the estimation error ...
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作者：Ferman, Bruno
摘要：We consider the asymptotic properties of the synthetic control (SC) estimator when both the number of pretreatment periods and control units are large. If potential outcomes follow a linear factor model, we provide conditions under which the SC unit asymptotically recovers the factor structure of the treated unit, even when the pretreatment fit is imperfect. This happens when there are weights diluted among an increasing number of control units such that a weighted average of the factor struct...
