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作者：Clertant, M.; O'Quigley, J.
作者单位：Sorbonne Universite
摘要：We describe a new class of dose finding methods to be used in early phase clinical trials. Under some added parametric conditions the class reduces to the family of continual reassessment method (CRM) designs. Under some relaxation of the underlying structure the method is equivalent to the cumulative cohort design, the modified toxicity probability interval method or Bayesian optimal interval design classes of methods, which are non-parametric in nature whereas the CRM class can be viewed as ...
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作者：Care, Algo; Garatti, Simone; Campi, Marco C.
作者单位：HUN-REN; HUN-REN Institute for Computer Science & Control; Polytechnic University of Milan; University of Brescia
摘要：A sensible use of an estimation method requires that assessment criteria for the quality of the estimate be available. We present a coverage theory for the least squares estimate. By suitably modifying the empirical costs, one constructs statistics that are guaranteed to cover with known probability the cost associated with a next, still unseen, member of the population. All results of this paper are distribution free and can be applied to least squares problems in use across a variety of fiel...
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作者：Chick, Stephen; Forster, Martin; Pertile, Paolo
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; University of York - UK; University of Verona
摘要：We propose a Bayesian decision theoretic model of a fully sequential experiment in which the real-valued primary end point is observed with delay. The goal is to identify the sequential experiment which maximizes the expected benefits of technology adoption decisions, minus sampling costs. The solution yields a unified policy defining the optimal do not experiment'-fixed sample size experiment'-sequential experiment' regions and optimal stopping boundaries for sequential sampling, as a functio...
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作者：Huang, Shih-Hao; Huang, Mong-Na Lo; Shedden, Kerby; Wong, Weng Kee
作者单位：National Sun Yat Sen University; Academia Sinica - Taiwan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We construct optimal designs for group testing experiments where the goal is to estimate the prevalence of a trait by using a test with uncertain sensitivity and specificity. Using optimal design theory for approximate designs, we show that the most efficient design for simultaneously estimating the prevalence, sensitivity and specificity requires three different group sizes with equal frequencies. However, if estimating prevalence as accurately as possible is the only focus, the optimal strat...
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作者：Froelich, Markus; Huber, Martin
作者单位：University of Mannheim; University of Fribourg
摘要：The paper discusses the non-parametric identification of causal direct and indirect effects of a binary treatment based on instrumental variables. We identify the indirect effect, which operates through a mediator (i.e. intermediate variable) that is situated on the causal path between the treatment and the outcome, as well as the unmediated direct effect of the treatment by using distinct instruments for the endogenous treatment and the endogenous mediator. We examine various settings to obta...
