A Bayesian decision theoretic model of sequential experimentation with delayed response

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chick, Stephen; Forster, Martin; Pertile, Paolo
• 署名单位: INSEAD Business School; University of York - UK; University of Verona
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1369-7412
• DOI: 10.1111/rssb.12225
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1439-1462
• 关键词: sirolimus-eluting stents; clinical-trials; DESIGN

摘要

We propose a Bayesian decision theoretic model of a fully sequential experiment in which the real-valued primary end point is observed with delay. The goal is to identify the sequential experiment which maximizes the expected benefits of technology adoption decisions, minus sampling costs. The solution yields a unified policy defining the optimal do not experiment'-fixed sample size experiment'-sequential experiment' regions and optimal stopping boundaries for sequential sampling, as a function of the prior mean benefit and the size of the delay. We apply the model to the field of medical statistics, using data from published clinical trials.