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• INTRODUCTION TO PAPERS ON THE MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF NETWORK DATA AI翻译
  作者：Fienberg, Stephen E.
  作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University
• AN MDL APPROACH TO THE CLIMATE SEGMENTATION PROBLEM AI翻译
  作者：Lu, Qiqi; Lund, Robert; Lee, Thomas C. M.
  作者单位：Mississippi State University; Clemson University; Colorado State University System; Colorado State University Fort Collins; Chinese University of Hong Kong
  摘要：This paper proposes an information theory approach to estimate the number of changepoints and their locations in a climatic time series. A model is introduced that has an unknown number of changepoints and allows for series autocorrelations, periodic dynamics, and a mean shift at each changepoint time. An objective function gauging the number of changepoints and their locations, based on a minimum description length (MDL) information criterion, is derived. A genetic algorithm is then developed...
• DOWNSCALING EXTREMES: A COMPARISON OF EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS IN POINT-SOURCE AND GRIDDED PRECIPITATION DATA AI翻译
  作者：Mannshardt-Shamseldin, Elizabeth C.; Smith, Richard L.; Sain, Stephan R.; Mearns, Linda O.; Cooley, Daniel
  作者单位：Duke University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; Colorado State University System; Colorado State University Fort Collins
  摘要：There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However, understanding these issues is limited by a fundamental issue of spatial scaling: most evidence of past trends comes from rain gauge data, whereas trends into the future are produced by climate models, which rely on gridded aggregates. To study this further, we fit ...
• VARIABLE SELECTION AND UPDATING IN MODEL-BASED DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS FOR HIGH DIMENSIONAL DATA WITH FOOD AUTHENTICITY APPLICATIONS AI翻译
  作者：Murphy, Thomas Brendan; Dean, Nema; Raftery, Adrian E.
  作者单位：University College Dublin; University of Glasgow; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
  摘要：Food authenticity studies are concerned with determining if food samples have been correctly labeled or not. Discriminant analysis methods are an integral part of the methodology for food authentication. Motivated by food authenticity applications, a model-based discriminant analysis method that includes variable selection is presented. The discriminant analysis model is fitted in a semi-supervised manner using both labeled and unlabeled data. The method is shown to give excellent classificati...
• BART: BAYESIAN ADDITIVE REGRESSION TREES AI翻译
  作者：Chipman, Hugh A.; George, Edward I.; McCulloch, Robert E.
  作者单位：Acadia University; University of Pennsylvania; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
  摘要：We develop a Bayesian sum-of-trees model where each tree is constrained by a regularization prior to be a weak learner, and fitting and inference are accomplished via an iterative Bayesian backfitting MCMC algorithm that generates samples from a posterior. Effectively, BART is a nonparametric Bayesian regression approach which uses dimensionally adaptive random basis elements. Motivated by ensemble methods in general, and boosting algorithms in particular, BART is defined by a statistical mode...
• ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL AI翻译
  作者：Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin
  作者单位：University of Rochester
  摘要：Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in a deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear diffe...
• ESTIMATING TIME-VARYING NETWORKS AI翻译
  作者：Kolar, Mladen; Song, Le; Ahmed, Amr; Xing, Eric P.
  作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
  摘要：Stochastic networks are a plausible representation of the relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as living cells or social communities. While there is a rich literature in estimating a static or temporally invariant network from observation data, little has been done toward estimating time-varying networks from time series of entity attributes. In this paper we present two new machine learning methods for estimating time-varying networks, which both build on a temporally...