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作者：Cooley, Daniel; Davis, Richard A.; Naveau, Philippe
作者单位：Colorado State University System; Colorado State University Fort Collins; Columbia University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Paris Saclay
摘要：Phenomena such as air pollution levels are of greatest interest when observations are large, but standard prediction methods are not specifically designed for large observations. We propose a method, rooted in extreme value theory, which approximates the conditional distribution of an unobserved component of a random vector given large observed values. Specifically, for Z = (Z(1), ... , Z(d))(T) and Z(-d) = (Z(1), ... , Z(d-1))(T), the method approximates the conditional distribution of [Z(d) ...
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作者：Aston, John A. D.; Kirch, Claudia
作者单位：University of Warwick; Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
摘要：Functionalmagnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is now a well-established technique for studying the brain. However, in many situations, such as when data are acquired in a resting state, it is difficult to know whether the data are truly stationary or if level shifts have occurred. To this end, change-point detection in sequences of functional data is examined where the functional observations are dependent and where the distributions of change-points from multiple subjects are required. Of parti...
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作者：Aksakalli, Vural; Ceyhan, Elvan
作者单位：Istanbul Sehir University; Koc University
摘要：We introduce the optimal obstacle placement with disambiguations problem wherein the goal is to place true obstacles in an environment cluttered with false obstacles so as to maximize the total traversal length of a navigating agent (NAVA). Prior to the traversal, the NAVA is given location information and probabilistic estimates of each disk-shaped hindrance (hereinafter referred to as disk) being a true obstacle. The NAVA can disambiguate a disk's status only when situated on its boundary. T...
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作者：Potter, Gail E.; Handcock, Mark S.; Longini, Ira M., Jr.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e. g., homes, schools and work-places). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer dura...
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作者：Tilahun, Gelila; Feuerverger, Andrey; Gervers, Michael
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Toronto
摘要：Deeds, or charters, dealing with property rights, provide a continuous documentation which can be used by historians to study the evolution of social, economic and political changes. This study is concerned with charters (written in Latin) dating from the tenth through early fourteenth centuries in England. Of these, at least one million were left undated, largely due to administrative changes introduced by William the Conqueror in 1066. Correctly dating such charters is of vital importance in...
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作者：Yan, Donghui; Wang, Pei; Linden, Michael; Knudsen, Beatrice; Randolph, Timothy
作者单位：Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Cedars Sinai Medical Center
摘要：Recent advances in tissue microarray technology have allowed immunohistochemistry to become a powerful medium-to-high throughput analysis tool, particularly for the validation of diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. However, as study size grows, the manual evaluation of these assays becomes a prohibitive limitation; it vastly reduces throughput and greatly increases variability and expense. We propose an algorithm-Tissue Array Co-Occurrence Matrix Analysis (TACOMA)-for quantifying cellular ph...
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作者：Illian, Janine B.; Sorbye, Sigrunn H.; Rue, Havard
作者单位：University of St Andrews; UiT The Arctic University of Tromso; Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU)
摘要：This paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by considering constructed covariates. This enables us to use integrated nested Laplace approximation and to considerably speed up the inferential task. In addition, methods for model comparison and model assessment facilitate the modelling process. The perform...
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作者：Sigrist, Fabio; Kuensch, Hans R.; Stahel, Werner A.
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：Precipitation is a complex physical process that varies in space and time. Predictions and interpolations at unobserved times and/or locations help to solve important problems in many areas. In this paper, we present a hierarchical Bayesian model for spatio-temporal data and apply it to obtain short term predictions of rainfall. The model incorporates physical knowledge about the underlying processes that determine rainfall, such as advection, diffusion and convection. It is based on a tempora...
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作者：Lopes, Hedibert F.; Schmidt, Alexandra M.; Salazar, Esther; Gomez, Mariana; Achkar, Marcel
作者单位：University of Chicago; Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; Duke University; Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay; Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay; Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica
摘要：We propose a model-based vulnerability index of the population from Uruguay to vector-borne diseases. We have available measurements of a set of variables in the census tract level of the 19 Departmental capitals of Uruguay. In particular, we propose an index that combines different sources of information via a set of micro-environmental indicators and geographical location in the country. Our index is based on a new class of spatially hierarchical factor models that explicitly account for the...
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作者：Voulgaraki, Anastasia; Kedem, Benjamin; Graubard, Barry I.
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Cancer Institute (NCI)
摘要：It is possible to approach regression analysis with random covariates from a semiparametric perspective where information is combined from multiple multivariate sources. The approach assumes a semiparametric density ratio model where multivariate distributions are regressed on a reference distribution. A kernel density estimator can be constructed from many data sources in conjunction with the semiparametric model. The estimator is shown to be more efficient than the traditional single-sample ...
