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• PHENOMENOLOGICAL FORECASTING OF DISEASE INCIDENCE USING HETEROSKEDASTIC GAUSSIAN PROCESSES: A DENGUE CASE STUDY AI翻译
  作者：Johnson, Leah R.; Gramacy, Robert B.; Cohen, Jeremy; Mordecai, Erin; Murdock, Courtney; Rohr, Jason; Ryan, Sadie J.; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Weikel, Daniel
  作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; State University System of Florida; University of South Florida; Stanford University; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; State University of New York (SUNY) System; SUNY Upstate Medical University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; SUNY Upstate Medical University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
  摘要：In 2015 the US federal government sponsored a dengue forecasting competition using historical case data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Competitors were evaluated on several aspects of out-of-sample forecasts including the targets of peak week, peak incidence during that week, and total season incidence across each of several seasons. Our team was one of the winners of that competition, outperforming other teams in multiple targets/locales. In this paper we report on our methodol...
• KERNEL-PENALIZED REGRESSION FOR ANALYSIS OF MICROBIOME DATA AI翻译
  作者：Randolph, Timothy W.; Zhao, Sen; Copeland, Wade; Hullar, Meredith; Shojaie, Ali
  作者单位：Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
  摘要：The analysis of human microbiome data is often based on dimensionreduced graphical displays and clusterings derived from vectors of microbial abundances in each sample. Common to these ordination methods is the use of biologically motivated definitions of similarity. Principal coordinate analysis, in particular, is often performed using ecologically defined distances, allowing analyses to incorporate context-dependent, non-Euclidean structure. In this paper, we go beyond dimension-reduced ordi...
• FAST INFERENCE OF INDIVIDUAL ADMIXTURE COEFFICIENTS USING GEOGRAPHIC DATA AI翻译
  作者：Caye, Kevin; Jay, Flora; Michel, Olivier; Francois, Olivier
  作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Engineering & Systems Sciences (INSIS); Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute of Ecology & Environment (INEE); Universite Paris Saclay; Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Information Sciences & Technologies (INS2I)
  摘要：Accurately evaluating the distribution of genetic ancestry across geographic space is one of the main questions addressed by evolutionary biologists. This question has been commonly addressed through the application of Bayesian estimation programs allowing their users to estimate individual admixture proportions and allele frequencies among putative ancestral populations. Following the explosion of high-throughput sequencing technologies, several algorithms have been proposed to cope with comp...
• A PHYLOGENETIC SCAN TEST ON A DIRICHLET-TREE MULTINOMIAL MODEL FOR MICROBIOME DATA AI翻译
  作者：Tang, Yunfan; Ma, Li; Nicolae, Dan L.
  作者单位：University of Chicago; Duke University
  摘要：In this paper, we introduce the phylogenetic scan test (PhyloScan) for investigating cross-group differences in microbiome compositions using the Dirichlet-tree multinomial (DTM) model. DTM models the microbiome data through a cascade of independent local DMs on the internal nodes of the phylogenetic tree. Each of the local DMs captures the count distributions of a certain number of operational taxonomic units at a given resolution. Since distributional differences tend to occur in clusters al...
• TWO-LEVEL STRUCTURAL SPARSITY REGULARIZATION FOR IDENTIFYING LATTICES AND DEFECTS IN NOISY IMAGES AI翻译
  作者：Li, Xin; Belianinov, Alex; Dyck, Ondrej; Jesse, Stephen; Park, Chiwoo
  作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences
  摘要：This paper presents a regularized regression model with a two-level structural sparsity penalty applied to locate individual atoms in a noisy scanning transmission electron microscopy image (STEM). In crystals, the locations of atoms is symmetric, condensed into a few lattice groups. Therefore, by identifying the underlying lattice in a given image, individual atoms can be accurately located. We propose to formulate the identification of the lattice groups as a sparse group selection problem. ...
• SIMULTANEOUS MODELLING OF MOVEMENT, MEASUREMENT ERROR, AND OBSERVER DEPENDENCE IN MARK-RECAPTURE DISTANCE SAMPLING: AN APPLICATION TO ARCTIC BIRD SURVEYS AI翻译
  作者：Conn, Paul B.; Alisauskas, Ray T.
  作者单位：National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Environment & Climate Change Canada; Canadian Wildlife Service; Wildlife Research Division - Environment Canada
  摘要：Mark-recapture distance sampling is a promising method for surveying bird populations from aircraft in open landscapes. However, commonly available distance sampling estimators require that distances to target animals are made without error and that animals are stationary while sampling is being conducted. Motivated by a recent bird survey where these requirements were routinely violated, we describe a marginal likelihood framework for estimating abundance from double-observer data that can ac...
• REDUCING STORAGE OF GLOBAL WIND ENSEMBLES WITH STOCHASTIC GENERATORS AI翻译
  作者：Jeong, Jaehong; Castruccio, Stefano; Crippa, Paola; Genton, Marc G.
  作者单位：King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; University of Notre Dame; University of Notre Dame
  摘要：Wind has the potential to make a significant contribution to future energy resources. Locating the sources of this renewable energy on a global scale is however extremely challenging, given the difficulty to store very large data sets generated by modern computer models. We propose a statistical model that aims at reproducing the data-generating mechanism of an ensemble of runs via a Stochastic Generator (SG) of global annual wind data. We introduce an evolutionary spectrum approach with spati...
• STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF PREDICTIVE SPACE-TIME SCENARIOS OF WIND SPEED USING OBSERVATIONS AND PHYSICAL MODEL OUTPUTS AI翻译
  作者：Bessac, Julie; Constantinescu, Emil; Anitescu, Mihai
  作者单位：United States Department of Energy (DOE); Argonne National Laboratory; University of Chicago; University of Chicago
  摘要：We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecasts during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lake...
• A MULTI-RESOLUTION MODEL FOR NON-GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELDS ON A SPHERE WITH APPLICATION TO IONOSPHERIC ELECTROSTATIC POTENTIALS AI翻译
  作者：Fan, Minjie; Paul, Debashis; Lee, Thomas C. M.; Matsuo, Tomoko
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
  摘要：Gaussian random fields have been one of the most popular tools for analyzing spatial data. However, many geophysical and environmental processes often display non-Gaussian characteristics. In this paper, we propose a new class of spatial models for non-Gaussian random fields on a sphere based on a multi-resolution analysis. Using a special wavelet frame, named spherical needlets, as building blocks, the proposed model is constructed in the form of a sparse random effects model. The spatial loc...
• DESIGN OF VACCINE TRIALS DURING OUTBREAKS WITH AND WITHOUT A DELAYED VACCINATION COMPARATOR AI翻译
  作者：Dean, Natalie E.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.
  作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
  摘要：Conducting vaccine efficacy trials during outbreaks of emerging pathogens poses particular challenges. The Ebola ca suffit trial in Guinea used a novel ring vaccination cluster randomized design to target populations at highest risk of infection. Another key feature of the trial was the use of a delayed vaccination arm as a comparator, in which clusters were randomized to immediate vaccination or vaccination 21 days later. This approach, chosen to improve ethical acceptability of the trial, co...